741
WTNT42 KNHC 192044
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
400 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THE DEPRESSION HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED, AND DEEP CONVECTION
IS GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND IN BANDS. AN ASCAT PASS
FROM AROUND 15Z SHOWED PEAK WINDS OF AROUND 25 KT, AND DATA FROM THE
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW WINDS OF ABOUT THAT
SAME VALUE. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS RATHER LARGE AND SOMEWHAT
DIFFUSE, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY COVERING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN GULF.
THE SYSTEM HAS BARELY MOVED TODAY. IN FACT, IT HAS DRIFTED
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SLOW MOTION IS DUE TO
VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, WITH THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY CAUGHT
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN U.S., AND A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE DRIFTING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND ITS OUTER BANDS
COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BEGINNING LATE MONDAY. A TURN TO THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE U.S.
BUILDS EASTWARD AND BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. THAT
MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH,
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE USUALLY BEST-PERFORMING AIDS HCCA, TVCN,
AND GDMI.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY STRENGTHEN, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SHORT TERM, DUE TO ITS SPRAWLING STRUCTURE, NEARBY DRY AIR, AND
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NONETHELESS, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY WHEN IT IS OFFSHORE OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE SHEAR COULD BRIEFLY LET UP DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND IF THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER WATER AT THAT
TIME, IT COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE. THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT RANGE FROM THE SYSTEM REMAINING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO EVEN BECOMING A HURRICANE. GIVEN THE MIXED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND SOME EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION, THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THOSE SOLUTIONS, BUT LEANS CLOSER TO
THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH EMPHASIZING
THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH LAND THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND
COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BEGINNING LATE MONDAY, WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT,
2. INTERESTS IN ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI, LOUISIANA, AND TEXAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM, AS WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THAT AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
3. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM WESTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI, AND LOUISIANA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 27.5N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 27.9N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 28.2N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 28.5N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 28.9N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 29.2N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 29.4N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 29.2N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 29.3N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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