247
WTPZ41 KNHC 200234
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
800 PM MST SUN JUL 19 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FAUSTO'S CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED NEAR THE CENTER, WITH A
WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB ARE T3.0/45 KT, WHILE
OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KT. GIVEN
THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, OR 310/10 KT.
WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER, TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT 96 H, WITH THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASING SOMEWHAT
THEREAFTER. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD IN THE
WAKE OF ELIDA, STEERING FAUSTO ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SLOW AND TURN SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE RESUMING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WHILE ACCELERATING LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, BUT HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT TO
BETTER ALIGN WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, DEEP MOISTURE, AND MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG FAUSTO'S FORECAST TRACK. ACCORDINGLY,
FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 H, AND A PERIOD
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY BY MIDWEEK.
THEREAFTER, GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH ABOUT 60 H, THEN LIES NEAR
THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 12.6N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 13.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 14.5N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 15.6N 119.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 16.3N 120.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 16.7N 122.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 17.1N 124.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 17.7N 128.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 18.5N 134.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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