784
WTPZ45 KNHC 200241
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 2026
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ELIDA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND ITS
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EXPOSED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS
BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 45 KT, BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST
FINAL-T AND CI DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND THE EXPECTATION THAT
THE TROPICAL STORM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY SINCE PARTIAL ASCAT DATA
EARLIER TODAY SHOWED PEAK WINDS NEAR 45 KT. FURTHER GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ELIDA CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS
AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING. THE
CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 TO 36 H,
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SIMULATED SATELLITE FORECASTS FROM SEVERAL
DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER, IF THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND FOR
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM TO CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT, THAT TRANSITION COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER.
ELIDA APPEARS TO BE VERY SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED, BUT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND PICK UP FORWARD SPEED AS IT TURNS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TWEAK IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ELIDA'S TRACK, AND THE
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY MOVE NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO UNTIL IT BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. THE REMNANTS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN UNTIL THE
CYCLONE DISSIPATES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 24.1N 126.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 26.0N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 28.7N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 31.6N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z 34.2N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1200Z 35.6N 127.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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