934
WTNT42 KNHC 200245
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THE DEPRESSION IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE APPARENT CENTER, WITH OTHER MODEST BANDS MOSTLY IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVEN'T
REPORTED MUCH MORE THAN 20 KT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A
JUST-RECEIVED PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASS.
THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, CAUGHT IN LIGHT
STEERING BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ONE OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS SLOW MOTION, WITH SOME TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK, AND THE CYCLONE'S OUTER BANDS COULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY. A TURN TO THE WEST AND AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST LATE ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
U.S. BUILDS EASTWARD, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NORTH
IN THE SHORT-TERM, BLENDING BACK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON DAY
2, THEN A BIT TO THE SOUTH AT LONG-TERM. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND SOLUTIONS.
ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED DUE TO ITS BROAD
STRUCTURE, POCKETS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, AND NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, DESPITE VERY WARM WATERS. THE CYCLONE IS STILL
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY WHEN IT IS OFFSHORE OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN INCREASE IN SHEAR IS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY, WHICH COULD CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO FLAT LINE, ALONG WITH
SOME LAND INTERACTION. THIS IS A CHALLENGING FORECAST BECAUSE OF
THE EXPECTED MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS, WHICH ARE KNOWN TO RESULT
IN LESS PREDICTABLE OUTCOMES. FOR INSTANCE, RELIABLE MODELS ARE
SPREAD FROM NEAR DISSIPATION BY THE ECMWF/HAFS GUIDANCE BUT NEAR
HURRICANE-STRENGTH IN THE LATEST HWRF/HMON RUNS. THE NHC FORECAST
CONTINUES TO LIE BETWEEN THOSE SOLUTIONS, BUT IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED
THAT I DON'T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PREDICTION GIVEN THE ABOVE
FACTORS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND
COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BEGINNING LATE MONDAY, WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.
2. INTERESTS IN ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI, LOUISIANA, AND TEXAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM, AS WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THAT AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
3. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM WESTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI, AND LOUISIANA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 28.0N 85.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 28.3N 85.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 28.6N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 28.8N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 29.1N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 29.3N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 29.2N 89.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 29.0N 93.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 28.8N 97.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
FORECASTER BLAKE
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