041
WTPZ41 KNHC 200833
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
200 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2026
ALTHOUGH MODEST NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPART A
SLIGHT TILT TO THE VORTEX, A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS ALLOWED THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
TO IMPROVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT, THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION, WHICH WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASS. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SAMPLED PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF
AROUND 45 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.
BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, OR 290/10
KT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD IN THE
WAKE OF ELIDA, STEERING FAUSTO ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS
WESTWARD, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW AND BEND
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER, FAUSTO SHOULD
RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WHILE ACCELERATING LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND
THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
ALTHOUGH MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO FAUSTO'S
ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DEEP MOISTURE,
AND IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH FAUSTO FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY IN ABOUT 60 HOURS OR AROUND MIDWEEK.
THEREAFTER, GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH ABOUT 60 H, THEN LIES NEAR
THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 12.9N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 13.8N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 15.0N 118.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 15.9N 119.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 16.4N 121.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 16.9N 123.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 17.3N 125.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 17.9N 130.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 18.8N 135.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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