690
WTPZ45 KNHC 200848
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ELIDA CONTINUES
TO FADE AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
DRIER AIR, AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. A RECENT PARTIAL
ASCAT-C PASS INDICATES THE SYSTEM STILL HAS WINDS OF AROUND 42 KT,
SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST
TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW AND THEN EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE INTO
AN OPEN TROUGH IN A FEW DAYS. THE LATEST TAFB SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WAS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION, SUGGESTING THAT ELIDA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THESE
SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE.
ELIDA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ITS FORWARD SPEED, WITH THE LATEST MOTION ESTIMATED AT
340/11 KT. THIS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS, AND LIES
NEAR THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 25.3N 127.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 27.2N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 30.0N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 21/1800Z 32.7N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0600Z 34.6N 127.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1800Z 36.7N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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