710
WTNT42 KNHC 201448
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION GETTING BETTER DEFINED AND INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING
NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER, REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THIS
HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN STRENGTHENING. THE MAXIMUM 925-MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT SO FAR IS 34 KT, AND
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SEEMS TO HAVE REFORMED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL MOTION IS
310/3 KT. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL RIDGES, ONE TO ITS NORTHWEST CENTERED OVER
THE ROCKIES AND ONE TO ITS SOUTHEAST CENTERED NEAR THE BAHAMAS.
OVER TIME, THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEPRESSION
TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST AT A CONTINUED
SLOW FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 60 H AND THEN REACHES SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS BY 120 H. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BASED PARTLY ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE FORECAST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR MAY HELP STEER THE
CENTER A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, AND
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24-30 H. IT IS LIKELY
THAT THERE WILL BE CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER
DURING THIS TIME, AND THESE SHOULD HELP INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE TO A
TROPICAL STORM. AFTER ABOUT 30 H, THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE, AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL GET
STRONG ENOUGH TO DESTROY THE VERTICAL INTEGRITY OF THE CYCLONE.
THIS SHOULD HALT INTENSIFICATION AND THEN CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KT IN 36 TO
48 H, AND THIS IS IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST ALSO CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO SURVIVE
THROUGH 120 H. HOWEVER, IT COULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 72-120 H,
ESPECIALLY IF IT TRACKS NORTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST AND HAS MORE
LAND INTERACTION.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR IS LIKELY TO GIVE
THE CYCLONE A VERY ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE, WITH THE BULK OF THE
RAINFALL AND MUCH OF THE WIND EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CENTER.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND COULD
BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
2. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI,
AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COASTS, WHERE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM
SURGE IS POSSIBLE.
3. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN LOUISIANA AND TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM, AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY.
4. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND ADJACENT INLAND LOCATIONS FROM WESTERN FLORIDA TO
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST, INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA,
MISSISSIPPI, AND LOUISIANA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 28.5N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 28.6N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 29.2N 87.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 29.4N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 29.5N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 29.5N 90.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1200Z 29.4N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 25/1200Z 29.3N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
FORECASTER BEVEN
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