859
WTPZ41 KNHC 202047
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
200 PM PDT MON JUL 20 2026
A MICROWAVE PASS THAT OCCURRED AROUND 1330 UTC SHOWED THAT THE
CENTER WAS NORTH OF THE CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. THE RECENT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIX FROM TAFB WAS 3.5/55 KT. A RECENT ASCAT-C
PASS SHOWS SEVERAL VECTORS OVER 50 KTS AND THAT THE INNER CORE
IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE
ALSO SHOWN THAT THE CONVECTION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF FAUSTO. BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS AND THE
IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
FAUSTO SHOULD MOVE INTO A REGION OF LIGHTER SHEAR WHILE REMAINING IN
A MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SHIPS
MODEL SUGGESTS THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE
TIMING AND POSSIBILITY OF THE INTENSIFICATION WILL BE TIED TO HOW
QUICKLY THE SYSTEM IS ABLE TO GET ORGANIZED. THE CURRENT NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND REMAINS STILL ON THE HIGHER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST DOES HAVE FAUSTO BECOMING A HURRICANE BY
TOMORROW AND START TO APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ONCE
FAUSTO MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND
DRIER AIR.
THE STORM IS SLOWLY GAINING LATITUDE, WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATED TO BE 305/9 KT. FAUSTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LEFT BEHIND BY ELIDA. BY WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER, THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM, AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE FAUSTO TO MOVE FASTER TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE IN THAT DIRECTION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
CURRENT NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK, BUT REMAINS WITHIN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/2100Z 14.2N 116.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 15.1N 117.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 16.0N 119.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 16.6N 120.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 17.0N 122.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 17.4N 124.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 17.7N 127.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 18.5N 132.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 19.4N 137.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
FORECASTER KATZ/HAGEN
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