305
WTPZ41 KNHC 210244
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
800 PM PDT MON JUL 20 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FAUSTO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH SOME
RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SHEAR REMAINS EVIDENT, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE BECOME MUCH BETTER
ALIGNED THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. RECENT MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER
DATA ALSO SUPPORT THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE, AND THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB INDICATE THAT FAUSTO HAS REACHED
HURRICANE INTENSITY. BASED ON THESE DATA AND THE IMPROVING SATELLITE
PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT, MAKING
FAUSTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2026 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/8 KT. A SLOWER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY
WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF FAUSTO,
CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT
72 H. THEREAFTER, A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CROSS-TRACK SPREAD DEVELOPS,
WITH THE GFS AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA) ON THE RIGHT SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE ECMWF AND GDMI ON THE LEFT, OR
SOUTH, SIDE. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE HCCA AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN.
FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WHILE REMAINING OVER WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A MOIST AIR
MASS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT
STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR COULD INITIALLY TEMPER THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR FAUSTO TO APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE
INTENSITY IN ABOUT 48 H AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE THROUGH THIS TIME. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND
INTO A DRIER, MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 14.7N 117.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 15.5N 118.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 16.2N 119.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 16.7N 121.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 17.1N 123.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 17.5N 125.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 17.9N 127.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 18.8N 133.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 19.7N 138.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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