673
AXPZ20 KNHC 210328
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO: FAUSTO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 117.3W AT
21/0300 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 21 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 13.5N-15.5N
BETWEEN 116W-118W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 107W AND 122W.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CORE OF FAUSTO IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED, AND HAS NOW REACHED HURRICANE INTENSITY. FAUSTO
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY TO RAPID AS FAUSTO
MOVES INTO A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SWELLS GENERATED BY
FAUSTO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FAUSTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING: POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA IS CENTERED NEAR
29.5N127.5W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB, AND MAXIMUM
WINDS AROUND 35 KT. AFTERNOON SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
WINDS 30-40 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW, AND IS
ASSUMED TO HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER
PASSES AROUND 1700 UTC SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF 12 FT SEAS FROM
24N-29 BETWEEN 126W-130W AND PEAK SEAS AROUND 20 FT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NOW FROM 31N-35N BETWEEN
127W-130W. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE
NORTH- NORTHWEST WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. PEAK WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DROP BELOW GALE-FORCE LATER TONIGHT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N74W TO 10N80W TO 06.5N93W TO
10N108W, WHERE IT BREAKS FOR TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO, THEN RESUMES
NEAR 12N130W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N EAST OF 93W, FROM 06N
TO 10N BETWEEN 103W AND 109W, AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN
131W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 650 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
WINDS ARE SE FRESH TO STRONG, SEAS 7-10 FT, AND SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE OFFSHORE ZONE OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS DUE TO THE PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL STORM
FAUSTO. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT
IN S-SW SWELL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE PACIFIC OFFSHORE WATERS
AND 2-4 FT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, NW WINDS SHOULD FRESHEN WITH ISOLATED STRONG
AREAS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE ON WED AND THU. MODERATE TO LARGE
SW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS W OF CABO
CORRIENTES TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE NE FRESH TO STRONG OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
WITH SEAS 6-9 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH
SEAS 4-5 FT IN S SWELL. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 03N TO 10 N EAST OF 93W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH FRI. ELSEWHERE, QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 650 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON A GALE WARNING FOR POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 600 NM MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE COASTAL BORDER OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO.
FAUSTO AND THE REMNANTS OF ELIDA DOMINATE CONDITIONS OVER THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST WATERS THIS EVENING. AWAY FROM THESE TWO
SYSTEMS, THE ONLY WINDS THAT ARE FRESH ARE SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
WEST OF 100W. THESE SE WINDS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY 8-9 FT SEAS.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE 6-7 FT IN
MIXED SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, NEWLY UPGRADED HURRICANE FAUSTO IS NEAR 14.7N
117.3W 988 MB AT 0300 MOVING NW AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NW. FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 15.5N 118.4W TUE MORNING,
MOVE TO 16.2N 119.9W TUE AFTERNOON, REACH 16.7N 121.4W WED
MORNING, 17.1N 123.2W WED AFTERNOON, 17.5N 125.4W THU MORNING,
AND 17.9N 127.9W THU AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
STRIPLING
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