016
AXPZ20 KNHC 211003
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0840 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO: FAUSTO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 118.0W AT
21/0900 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 85 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 25 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN
116W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 09.5N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 113W AND 123W.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CORE OF FAUSTO CONTINUES TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST TODAY, THEN IS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS
FAUSTO MOVES INTO A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SWELLS GENERATED
BY FAUSTO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY,
AND PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
THE LATEST FAUSTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING: POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA IS CENTERED NEAR
31N127.5W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. OVERNIGHT
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED WINDS NEAR 35 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW, AND N OF 30N, WITH PEAK WINDS
ELSEWHERE AROUND 30 KT. RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA ALSO
SHOWED SEAS AT 12 TO 16 FT TO THE N OF 29N IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW. SINCE GALE-FORCE WINDS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF 30N, THE GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST WHILE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N73W TO 08.5N83W TO 05N95W
TO 10N113W, WHERE IT BREAKS FOR HURRICANE FAUSTO, THEN RESUMES
NEAR 13.5N124W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 09N EAST OF 98W AND FROM 03.5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 133W AND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 102W AND 111W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 645 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 15 FT, AND SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE OFFSHORE ZONE OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AS FAUSTO PASSES THE ISLANDS TO THE SW.
ELSEWHERE, A VERY WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN FAUSTO AND MEXICO, YIELDING MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-6 FT IN S-SW SWELL OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE PACIFIC OFFSHORE WATERS. INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW
WINDS, WITH A FEW AREAS OF LOCALLY FRESH WESTERLY GAP WINDS. SEAS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 2-4 FT EXCEPT TO 5 FT ACROSS THE ENTRANCE.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS JUST
FROM COASTAL CHIAPAS TO OFFSHORE CENTRAL OAXACA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS WED AND THU TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF STRONG WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. MODERATE TO LARGE SW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS W OF CABO CORRIENTES TUE NIGHT THROUGH
THU. LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO BY MIDWEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND OFFSHORE TO 90W AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE NW NICARAGUA WATERS. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 4-5 FT IN S SWELL. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 04N TO 10N
EAST OF 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVER THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, QUIESCENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 650 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
FAUSTO AND THE REMNANTS OF ELIDA DOMINATE CONDITIONS OVER THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT. AWAY FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS,
THE ONLY WINDS THAT ARE FRESH ARE SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR WEST OF
110W, AND ARE ACCOMPANIED BY 8-9 FT SEAS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE 5-8 FT IN MIXED SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE FAUSTO IS NEAR 15.4N 118.0W 985 MB
AT 0900 MOVING NW AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NW THROUGH TUE
NIGHT THEN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WED AND THU. FAUSTO IS
EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 16.1N 119.2 MIDDAY TUE, MOVE TO 16.6N
120.7W MIDNIGHT TUE, REACH 17.1N 122.2W MIDDAY WED, NEAR 17.4N
124.2W MIDNIGHT WED, 17.8N 126.6W MIDDAY THU, 18.1N 129.4W
MIDNIGHT THU, AND 19.1N 134.7W MIDNIGHT FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF
MEXICO BY MIDWEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
STRIPLING
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