408
WTPZ41 KNHC 211439
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
500 AM HST TUE JUL 21 2026
SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY, THE CORE OF FAUSTO HAS LOST ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME
DISORGANIZED IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND A 0913Z AMSR
OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAD BECOME PARTLY
EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A
RESURGENCE IN THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
DECREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, AND BASED ON THESE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 305/10 KT. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE FORECASTS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT
12 H OR SO AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE
BUILDS WESTWARD. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION
IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 72 H. THEREAFTER,
THERE REMAINS AN INCREASE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE ECMWF AND GOOGLE
DEEPMIND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK HAS MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK, IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 120 H, AND LIES JUST A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH OF CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THAT FAUSTO WILL REACH A LIGHT-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEXT 12-24 H. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER
SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND AS A RESULT THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LESS STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST
36-48 H THAN PREVIOUSLY. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE
SHEAR HAS BEEN A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST ALL THROUGH THE LIFE OF
FAUSTO. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW
THE GUIDANCE IN SHOWING A RESUMED STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY AND A
PEAK INTENSITY IN 36-60 H. BEYOND THAT TIME, A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS AND INTO A DRIER, MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW FORECAST
IS NUDGED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 H
AND CHANGED LITTLE THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 16.3N 118.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 16.8N 119.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 17.2N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 17.5N 123.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 17.8N 125.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 18.2N 127.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 18.6N 130.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 19.5N 135.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 20.3N 140.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
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