596
WTPZ41 KNHC 212034
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
1100 AM HST TUE JUL 21 2026
THE CORE OF FAUSTO HAS NOT REGAINED ANY ORGANIZATION SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND OVERALL THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS OF A
SYSTEM BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER, A SAR OVERPASS NEAR 14Z
INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAD HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MICROWAVE
SOUNDERS. BASED ON THESE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT.
FAUSTO IS STARTING ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 295/10 KT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS, AND THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS BEFORE,
THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THREE DAYS. AFTER
THAT, THERE REMAINS AN INCREASE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD BETWEEN
THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND THE ECMWF, GOOGLE DEEPMIND, AND THE HAFS MODELS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FOR THE FIRST THREE DAYS, THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE CENTER OF
THE GUIDANCE. AT DAYS 4 AND 5, IT IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.
WHILE FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO BE IN A LIGHT- TO MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT WILL BE MOVING OVER
SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH 72 H.
SUBSEQUENTLY, THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR AND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE 26C ISOTHERM. IN ADDITION, THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE NEAR THE
STORM SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE FOR 72 H, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER
DECREASE. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS BY
SHOWING INTENSIFICATION FOR 48-60 H, WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER
72 H. BASED ON THE GUIDANCE AND THE NEED FOR THE CORE TO
RE-ORGANIZE, THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH FOR 12 H, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE 60 H
POINT. THE FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS NEAR THE UPPER EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE. AFTER 72 H, THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST IS WEAKER THAN
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 60 H, AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 16.6N 119.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 17.0N 121.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 17.4N 122.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 17.7N 124.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 17.9N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 18.3N 129.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 18.6N 132.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 19.4N 137.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 20.1N 142.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
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