836
AXPZ20 KNHC 212125
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 119.9W AT 21/2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO
80 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 28 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 13.5N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 118W
AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 113W AND 123W. FAUSTO IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. AFTER THAT, GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SWELLS GENERATED
BY FAUSTO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TONIGHT, AND PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FAUSTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W N OF 06N EXTENDING INTO GUATEMALA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND
90W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 07N80W TO 08N95W TO 11N110W, WHERE IT
BREAKS FOR HURRICANE FAUSTO, THEN RESUMES NEAR 12N126W TO BEYOND
09N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N
BETWEEN 90W AND 111W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 675 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE FAUSTO ARE REACHING THE CLARION ISLAND. A
COUPLE OF ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ON EITHER
SIDE OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ELSEWHERE, A VERY WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT N OF CABO SAN LAZARO,
WITH HIGHER SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT S OF CABO SAN LAZARO. INSIDE
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA SHOW
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GENTLE TO MODERATE SE
TO S WINDS FROM 27N TO 28.5N E OF 112W TO THE COAST OF SONORA.
SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
ENTRANCE. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS HURRICANE FAUSTO MOVES WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS WED AND THU TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO
FRESH NW WINDS WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF STRONG WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SWELLS GENERATED BY FAUSTO ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TONIGHT, AND PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES
THIS SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7
DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO
ABOUT TO 91W. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH WED
NIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PULSING NEAR THE GULF OF
FONSECA. GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WESTERN
COLOMBIA WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 675 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HURRICANE FAUSTO AND THE REMNANTS OF ELIDA, CURRENTLY LOCATED
WELL N OF THE FORECAST AREA, DOMINATE CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 110W. SEAS IN THE 8 TO 9
FT RANGE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ELIDA, ARE STILL
AFFECTING THE WATERS NORTH OF A LINE FROM 30N124W TO 28N130W TO
30N134W. OUTSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF FAUSTO, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE FAUSTO WILL MOVE TO 17.0N 121.1W WED
MORNING, 17.4N 122.7W WED AFTERNOON, 17.7N 124.6W THU MORNING,
17.9N 127.0W THU AFTERNOON, 18.3N 129.6W FRI MORNING, AND 18.6N
132.3W FRI AFTERNOON. FAUSTO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS
IT MOVES TO NEAR 19.4N 137.4W SAT AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS
SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7
DAYS. AS IS TYPICAL DURING EL NINO YEARS, THE EASTERN PACIFIC
REMAINS ACTIVE, WITH ONE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING AFTER ANOTHER.
GR
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