824
WTPZ41 KNHC 220236
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
500 PM HST TUE JUL 21 2026
A 21/2144 UTC AMSR-2 OVERPASS SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE TUCKED
UNDER THE CONVECTION, INDICATING THAT FAUSTO MAY HAVE RE-GAINED SOME
ORGANIZATION. THE PASS ALSO INDICATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MAY
HAVE BEEN ABOUT 10 TO 15 MILES TOO FAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
RECENT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RANGING BETWEEN 60-75
KT. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS 4.5/77 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, AS A
BLEND OF ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 KT. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD
BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF, AND IS A
BIT SLOWER THAN, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 3 DAYS,
AND IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HCCA AND GDMI DURING
THAT TIME. BEYOND 3 DAYS, THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE LATEST HCCA AND GDMI. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH 72 H, GIVEN THE RELATIVELY TIGHT CLUSTERING
OF THE GUIDANCE. SPREAD INCREASES AFTER THAT TIME, WITH THE GFS
AMONG THE SLOWER AND FARTHEST NORTH MODELS, WHILE THE ECMWF, HCCA
AND GDMI ARE FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH.
WHILE FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO BE IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT WILL BE MOVING OVER SLOWLY
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) THROUGH 72 H. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR AND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE 26C ISOTHERM. IN
ADDITION, THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE NEAR THE STORM SHOULD SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGH 72 H, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER DECREASE. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 H, AND NO CHANGE IS
MADE TO THE 85 KT PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER-END OF
THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DURING THAT PERIOD. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE DRIER AIR
AND SSTS NEAR 26C. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES AT THE HIGH END
OF THE MODEL SUITE FROM 60 H THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FAUSTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
BY DAY 5, GIVEN THAT SEVERAL RELIABLE MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 16.6N 120.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 16.9N 121.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 17.3N 123.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 17.6N 125.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 17.9N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 18.2N 130.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 18.6N 133.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 19.2N 138.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 20.0N 143.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
FORECASTER HAGEN
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