342
AXPZ20 KNHC 221009
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 120.7W AT 0900 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 90 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 29 FT. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 15.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 119W AND 121W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 19.5N BETWEEN 115W AND 124W.
FAUSTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS BEFORE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. SWELLS GENERATED BY FAUSTO ARE BEGINNING
TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SW
MEXICO TONIGHT, AND WILL PERSIST ACROSS THESE WATERS FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FAUSTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS RELOCATED ALONG 90W N OF 05N EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA, IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO
11.5N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N74W TO 08N78W TO 08N84W TO
06N100W TO 07N107W, WHERE IT BREAKS FOR HURRICANE FAUSTO, THEN
RESUMES NEAR 12.5N127W TO BEYOND 09N140W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND FAUSTO,
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 09.5N E OF 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04.5N TO 08N BETWEEN 101W AND 116W, AND
FROM 05N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 126W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 715 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FAUSTO IS EXITING TO THE W OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, LEAVING GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS
ACROSS THOSE AREA WATERS. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN 7 TO 10 FT IN SW
SWELL THERE.
TO THE NORTH OF FAUSTO, A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAJA WATERS AND BETWEEN FAUSTO AND CABO
CORRIENTES. THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE NW WINDS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM BAJA NORTE TO OFFSHORE CABO
CORRIENTES, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS NEAR THE COAST.
SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN S SWELL N OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND 6 TO 9 FT S
OF TO CABO CORRIENTES. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE
FOUND INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT
1 TO 3 FT EXCEPT 4 TO 5 FT IN NEW SW SWELL FROM FAUSTO ACROSS THE
ENTRANCE. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO W WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N GAP WINDS IN A NARROW PLUME
SPILLING OUT OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM HAVE
STRENGTHENED IN RECENT HOURS ALONG THE COAST FROM GUERRERO TO
JALISCO.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS HURRICANE FAUSTO MOVES WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THU TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF STRONG WINDS
NEAR THE COASTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SWELLS
GENERATED BY FAUSTO HAVE BEGUN TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SW MEXICO TONIGHT, AND PERSIST
THROUGH THU BEFORE FADING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM THIS WEEKEND WHILE
IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS. STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS FRI AND SLOWLY BUILD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PEAKING MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG
E WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO
ABOUT TO 90W, AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO NW NICARAGUA. SEAS ARE
6 TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS. THIS IS OCCURRING BEHIND A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 90W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME
VERY ACTIVE IN RECENT HOURS SOUTH OF THESE WINDS TO 03N, FROM
COSTA RICA TO WELL BEYOND 90W, AND BEING FUELED BY MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH S WINDS OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN S
TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THU
EVENING, THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENTLE TO
MODERATE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN
SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WELL DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO AND SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM THIS WEEKEND WHILE IT
MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AND BEYOND THE LOCAL
OFFSHORE WATERS. STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS EARLY FRI AND SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, PEAKING MON THROUGH TUE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 715 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HURRICANE FAUSTO DOMINATES CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST WATERS FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF FAUSTO
EXTEND TO 22N, AND SEAS TO 8 FT REACHING AS FAR N OF FAUSTO AS
26N. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE WEAKLY INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 120W AND W OF FAUSTO TO 10N. MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. MIXED SE AND SW SWELL
IS MOVING INTO THE EQUATORIAL WATERS W OF 125W, RAISING SEAS TO
NEAR 8 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE FAUSTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, REACHING NEAR
17.0N 121.9W MIDDAY TODAY, 17.4N 123.9W MIDNIGHT WED, 17.7N
126.4W MIDDAY THU, 18.0N 129.1W MIDNIGHT THU, 18.3N 132.0W MIDDAY
FRI, AND 18.7N 134.7W MIDNIGHT FRI. SE TO S SWELL PROPAGATING
AWAY FROM FAUSTO WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS W OF 120W
WED THROUGH SAT. LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO
FORM WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS. AS IS TYPICAL DURING
EL NINO YEARS, THE EASTERN PACIFIC REMAINS ACTIVE, WITH ONE
TROPICAL SYSTEM POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING AFTER ANOTHER. STRONG
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS
WED NIGHT AND SLOWLY BUILD THU NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRIPLING
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