065
WTPZ41 KNHC 221444
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
500 AM HST WED JUL 22 2026
FAUSTO APPEARS TO BE CONTENDING WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR BASED ON
ITS DETERIORATED SATELLITE STRUCTURE THIS MORNING. RECENT AMSR-2 AND
GMI PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THE MID-LEVEL EYEWALL OF THE
HURRICANE IS NO LONGER CLOSED, AND DRY SLOTS ARE EVIDENT IN
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. AS A RESULT OF THESE CHANGES, THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT, WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST UW-CIMSS D-PRINT, D-MINT, AND SATCON ESTIMATES.
FAUSTO CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (285/6 KT) WHILE BEING
STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
FAUSTO ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 H, WITH INCREASED
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD NOTED AT DAYS 4-5. THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND AND HCCA
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHILE THE GFS
AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS ARE STILL SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH.
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW HCCA ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE
FAUSTO MOVES OVER WARM WATERS IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, CONTINUED INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR MAY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, AND THE NHC FORECAST ONLY
SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 H. AS FAUSTO MOVES
WESTWARD, IT IS PREDICTED TO ENCOUNTER A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE TRACKING NEAR THE 26 DEG C ISOTHERM.
THUS, SLOW WEAKENING IS SHOWN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. NOTE THAT ANY LARGE NORTHWARD
TRACK DEVIATIONS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE FAUSTO TO WEAKEN EVEN FASTER
THAN SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 16.9N 121.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 17.3N 122.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 17.7N 125.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 18.1N 127.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 18.4N 130.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 18.6N 133.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 18.8N 135.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 19.5N 141.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 20.0N 146.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
FORECASTER REINHART
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page