270
AXPZ20 KNHC 221600
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 121.4W AT 22/1500 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 85 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 28 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W. FAUSTO CONTINUES
WNW OVER OPEN WATERS. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
MOTION, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SWELLS GENERATED BY FAUSTO ARE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
ARE SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FAUSTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W N OF 05N EXTENDING INTO GUATEMALA,
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN WHERE THE WAVE MEETS THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM
04N TO 08N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 06N85W TO 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 07N91W TO 05N105W, THEN RESUMES SW OF FAUSTO FROM 13N128W TO
BEYOND 09N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 106W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 745 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FAUSTO IS EXITING TO THE W OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS, LEAVING GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT
ACROSS THOSE AREA WATERS.
TO THE NORTH OF FAUSTO, A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS.
SEAS GENERATING BY FAUSTO ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
SEAS UP TO 8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS. MODERATE TO
FRESH NW WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AND IN THE VICINITY
OF CABO CORRIENTES WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE
NW TO W WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N
GAP WINDS IN A NARROW PLUME SPILLING OUT OF TEHUANTEPEC. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SW
MEXICAN COAST AFFECTING THE WATERS FROM 16N TO 19N E OF 106W.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS HURRICANE FAUSTO MOVES WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THU TO PRODUCE MODERATE
TO FRESH NW WINDS WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF STRONG WINDS NEAR THE
COASTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SWELLS GENERATED
BY FAUSTO HAVE BEGUN TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND SW MEXICO, AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU BEFORE
FADING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH, REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE OF
MEXICO. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A
HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS, AND A
LOW CHANCE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG CROSS- EQUATORIAL
SWELL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI AND SLOWLY BUILD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PEAKING MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LATEST SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG
E WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO
ABOUT TO 90W, AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO NW NICARAGUA. SEAS ARE 6
TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS. THIS IS OCCURRING BEHIND A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 90W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME
VERY ACTIVE IN RECENT HOURS SOUTH OF THESE WINDS TO 03N, FROM
COSTA RICA TO WELL BEYOND 90W, AND BEING FUELED BY MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH S WINDS OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN S
TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THU
EVENING, THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENTLE TO
MODERATE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN
SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WELL DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO AND SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH, REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SWELL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY FRI AND SLOWLY
BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PEAKING MON THROUGH TUE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 745 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HURRICANE FAUSTO DOMINATES CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
WATERS FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF FAUSTO EXTEND TO
22N, AND SEAS TO 8 FT REACHING AS FAR N OF FAUSTO AS 25N.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE WEAKLY INTO THE
NORTHERN WATERS W OF 120W AND W OF FAUSTO TO 10N. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE FAUSTO IS NEAR 16.9N 121.4W AT 8 AM
PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 983 MB. FAUSTO WILL MOVE TO 17.3N 122.8W THIS
EVENING, 17.7N 125.0W THU MORNING, 18.1N 127.8W THU EVENING,
18.4N 130.6W FRI MORNING, 18.6N 133.3W FRI EVENING, AND 18.8N
135.9W SAT MORNING. FAUSTO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 19.5N 141.0W EARLY SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL
WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 91W IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH, REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS, AND A LOW CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AS
IS TYPICAL DURING EL NINO YEARS, THE EASTERN PACIFIC REMAINS
ACTIVE, WITH ONE TROPICAL SYSTEM POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING AFTER
ANOTHER. STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA WED NIGHT AND SLOWLY BUILD THU NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
GR
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