763
WTPZ41 KNHC 222033
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
1100 AM HST WED JUL 22 2026
FAUSTO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THE HURRICANE IS MAINTAINING A PARTIAL INNER CORE, INTRUSIONS OF DRY
AIR CONTINUE TO DISRUPT IT FROM CLOSING OFF. THAT DRY AIR HAS ALSO
WRAPPED INTO THE OUTER PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, CAUSING THE
HURRICANE TO HAVE A RAGGED APPEARANCE. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN THE
LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES, BUT BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE DATA,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE GENEROUS. A RECENT ASCAT-B PASS WAS HELPFUL
IN ESTIMATING THE 34- AND 50-KT WIND RADII.
THE HURRICANE IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT.
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT RIDGING SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN
ESTABLISHED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT, FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
A FASTER PACE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DESPITE THE MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN, THERE IS STILL A NOTABLE
AMOUNT OF SPREAD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS ON
THE FAST AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE TYPICALLY MOST SKILLFUL AIDS, HCCA, GDMI, AND TVCN. THIS
FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FAUSTO HAS A DAY OR TWO LEFT TO STRENGTHEN, BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN
THE NEARBY ENVIRONMENT, ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY.
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS SHOULD END THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING AND CAUSE A GRADUAL DECAY. FAUSTO IS
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WHEN IT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO A REGION OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
DOWNWARD, AND STILL LIES AT THE HIGH END OF THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 17.2N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 17.5N 123.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 17.9N 126.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 18.2N 128.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 18.4N 131.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 18.7N 134.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 19.0N 136.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 19.7N 141.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 20.4N 146.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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