321
WTNT42 KNHC 222048
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
400 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
BERTHA'S CENTER MADE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF ST. BERNARD
PARISH, LOUISIANA, AROUND 2 PM CDT. THE MAIN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
LARGE AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ONGOING SOUTH OF THE
LOUISIANA COAST. BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA FROM AN EARLIER AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT AND SCATTEROMETER DATA, THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KT, PRIMARILY IN A BAND WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF WATERS.
THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE OVER PARTS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LATER THIS EVENING AS BERTHA
CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD.
AFTER MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SINCE LAST NIGHT, BERTHA'S CENTER
APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE SHORT-TERM TRACK FORECAST IS INTRIGUING, WITH JUST ABOUT EVERY
GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER WILL TAKE A DIP OR RE-FORM
TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST AS EARLY AS
THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. THEREAFTER, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WESTWARD, MOVING VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA TO
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS MORNING'S
NORTHWARD JOG, THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE, THE FORECAST IS A BIT SOUTH OF
THE HCCA AND GDMI GUIDANCE, WHICH PROBABLY WOULDN'T HANDLE A CENTER
RE-FORMATION AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL MODELS.
MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE PROMINENT BAND OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, AND THEREFORE ONLY MINIMAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST MAINTAINS BERTHA
AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL THE CENTER
REACHES THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL DISINTEGRATE SHORTLY AFTER THE CENTER
MOVES ONSHORE THE TEXAS COAST. A REMNANT LOW FORECAST POSITION IS
PROVIDED INLAND OVER TEXAS AT 36 HOURS, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY THEN.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM ALABAMA TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA,
INCLUDING THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA, TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COAST ON THURSDAY.
2. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTLINES, WHERE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
3. A RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING SHIFTS WEST ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM NORTHWEST FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 29.8N 89.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 23/0600Z 29.6N 91.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 23/1800Z 29.5N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 24/0600Z 29.4N 96.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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