291
AXPZ20 KNHC 222150
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 122.0W AT 22/2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 30 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 118W AND
122W. FAUSTO CONTINUES WEST OVER OPEN WATERS. A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED, IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY
SLOW WEAKENING ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SWELLS GENERATED BY
FAUSTO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ARE SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FAUSTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
EASTERN AND CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC: A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG
92W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE
IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH, REMAINING
WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES
THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH
48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS. PLEASE, REFER TO THE
LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W N OF 05N EXTENDING INTO WESTERN
GUATEMALA, MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 08N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 87W
AND 95W. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION RELATED TO THIS WAVE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 08N92W
TO 06N105W, THEN RESUMES SW OF FAUSTO FROM 13N128W TO BEYOND 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
04N TO 10N E OF 107W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE
FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 760 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. FAUSTO CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, LEAVING GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE AND
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THOSE AREA WATERS. A RECENT ALTIMETER
PASS SHOWS SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT WITHIN ABOUT 145 NM WEST OF CLARION
ISLAND.
A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD BETWEEN HURRICANE FAUSTO AND THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AND MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA AND CABO
SAN LUCAS. SEAS GENERATING BY FAUSTO ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT REACHING THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
BASED ON A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO W
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 14N.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS HURRICANE FAUSTO CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A MEANDERING
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED BY FAUSTO WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THU BEFORE FADING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, INCREASING
TO FRESH SPEEDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE
NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LATEST SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG N
TO E WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO
ABOUT TO 91W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS BASED ON
ALTIMETER DATA. THIS IS OCCURRING BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE WITH
AXIS ALONG 92W. THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 04N. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THU,
THEN MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GENTLE TO
MODERATE N WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN
SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS, ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH,
MAY IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THU
THROUGH FRI, BUILDING SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 760 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HURRICANE FAUSTO DOMINATES CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF FAUSTO
EXTEND TO 22N, WITH SEAS TO 8 FT REACHING AS FAR N OF FAUSTO AS
25N. ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS BETWEEN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND FAUSTO, AND ALSO N OF 15N W OF 125W. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE FAUSTO WILL MOVE TO 17.5N 123.6W THU
MORNING, 17.9N 126.1W THU AFTERNOON, 18.2N 128.8W FRI MORNING,
18.4N 131.5W FRI AFTERNOON, 18.7N 134.2W SAT MORNING, AND 19.0N
136.6W SAT AFTERNOON. FAUSTO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS
IT MOVES TO NEAR 19.7N 141.2W SUN AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA WED NIGHT AND SLOWLY BUILD THU NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GR
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