852
WTPZ41 KNHC 230236
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
500 PM HST WED JUL 22 2026
FAUSTO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE HAVE
BEEN SIGNS OF A CLOUD-FILLED EYE ON GOES-18 VISIBLE IMAGERY, AT
TIMES, WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST ALONG WITH TIGHT
BANDING NOTED. WATER VAPOR CHANNELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
JUST TO THE NORTH, IMPINGING ON FAUSTO. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS
FROM TAFB ARE 4.5/75 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE WIDE-RANGING
FROM 53-81 KT. TAKING A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE INITIAL
MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT. FAUSTO SHOULD
SPEED UP SOON, IN A DIRECTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST, AS
RIDGING STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THAT MOTION SHOULD
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE
IS NOTABLE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AT DAYS 4-5. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST
AND FARTHEST NORTH, WHILE THE HCCA (CORRECTED CONSENSUS) AND GDMI
(GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN) ARE THE FASTEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH
MODELS. THE TCVN SIMPLE CONSENSUS IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE
NHC FORECAST LEANS MUCH CLOSER TO THE HCCA AND GDMI, BUT IS NOT
QUITE AS FAR SOUTH OR AS FAST AS THOSE SOLUTIONS. THIS FORECAST IS
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
FAUSTO WILL REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
BETWEEN 26-27C, AND THOSE SSTS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 26C
IN ABOUT 48 H. MEANWHILE, MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES APPEAR
MOIST ENOUGH FOR THE HURRICANE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH 36
H, DESPITE THE CURRENT NEARBY DRY AIR NOTED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. FAUSTO WILL MOVE INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN DAY 2-4, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE
FIRST 48 H. THEREAFTER, THE FORECAST LIES CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED MID-LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FROM DAYS 4-5, IT
IS LIKELY THAT FAUSTO WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 17.5N 123.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 17.7N 124.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 18.0N 127.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 18.3N 130.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 18.6N 132.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 18.9N 135.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 19.2N 137.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 19.9N 142.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 20.6N 147.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
FORECASTER HAGEN
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