386
WTPZ41 KNHC 230835
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
1100 PM HST WED JUL 22 2026
FAUSTO'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS BECOME RATHER RAGGED SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. PROXY-VIS AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW A RAGGED EYE
FEATURE, WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM ERODED BY DRIER AIR. CLOUD TOPS HAVE STARTED TO WARM AS WELL.
THAT BEING SAID, A 0600 UTC ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS AROUND 58 KT, THOUGH GIVEN THE INSTRUMENT'S
UNDERSAMPLING BIAS, PEAK WINDS ARE LIKELY HIGHER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 53 TO 68 KT, AND THE CI
VALUE FROM TAFB IS T4.5/77 KT, ALTHOUGH THE DATA-T VALUE DID DROP TO
T4.0/65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. TAKING ALL THIS INTO ACCOUNT, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS HELD AT 70 KT, ALTHOUGH THAT
COULD BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE DEGRADING SATELLITE APPEARANCE.
THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING AT
AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 285/10 KT. FAUSTO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 3. BEYOND THAT
PERIOD, THERE IS INCREASING ALONG-TRACK SPREAD, WITH THE GDMI AND
HCCA GUIDANCE FARTHER SOUTH AND MUCH FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE GFS BEING THE SLOWEST AND FARTHER NORTH.
THE DIFFERENCE IS ABOUT 300 N MI BETWEEN THE GFS AND GDMI SOLUTIONS.
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD THE FASTER HCCA
CORRECTED-CONSENSUS AND GDMI MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FAUSTO WILL REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, TRACKING PARALLEL TO
THE 26C–27C ISOTHERMS. THE PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE THE DRY
AIR THAT LIES AHEAD, WITH MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 50 PERCENT IN 2–3 DAYS. THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEEN
PERIODICALLY INGESTING DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH AND WEST OVER THE LAST
DAY OR SO. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND, AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO HOW WELL FAUSTO CAN FEND
OFF DRY AIR FROM INTRUDING INTO THE INNER CORE. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE. THIS FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
HIGHER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, AS SOME MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM
FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKEN IT MORE QUICKLY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED ANY
NORTHWARD TRACK DEVIATIONS WOULD CAUSE FAUSTO TO WEAKEN EVEN FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 17.8N 124.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 18.3N 128.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 18.6N 131.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 18.8N 134.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 19.1N 136.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 19.5N 139.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 19.8N 144.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 20.5N 149.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
FORECASTER KELLY
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