784
AXPZ20 KNHC 230953
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUL 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 124.0W AT 0900 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 30 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE
FROM 12.5N TO 20.5N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W. FAUSTO HAS BEGIN TO
INGEST SOME OF THE DRIER AIR TO ITS WEST, AND THE CONVECTION IS
DECREASING ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS TOPS
ARE WARNING. FAUSTO HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS, AND THIS FASTER WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, HOWEVER A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST SWELLS
GENERATED BY FAUSTO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ARE REACHING THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FAUSTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
EASTERN AND CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC: A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG
94W CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS THE
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC, BETWEEN 90W AND 103W. A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER HAS FORMED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N98W,
AND AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. GRADUAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH, REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH
CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS. PLEASE, REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W N OF 04N TO 14N, MOVING WESTWARD
AROUND 10 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW. PLEASE,
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION RELATED TO
THIS WAVE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 09N73W TO 09N88W TO LOW PRES
08N98W 1008 MB TO 08N102.5W TO 11N121W, THEN RESUMES SW OF
FAUSTO FROM 13N125W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 02.5N
E OF 80W, AND FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 80W AND 103W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND
121W AND FROM 06.5N TO 12N W OF 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE
FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 850 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. FAUSTO CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO THE REVILLAGIGEDOS.
THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING LEAVING GENTLE NW TO N WINDS AND SEAS
OF 6 TO 7 FT IN W SWELL ACROSS THOSE AREA WATERS. ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE AREA TO THE W.
A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD BETWEEN HURRICANE FAUSTO AND THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS BETWEEN
PUNTA EUGENIA AND CABO SAN LUCAS. S TO SW SWELL GENERATING BY
FAUSTO IS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA, AND MIXING WITH THE BUILDING
NORTHERLY WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE BAJA
WATERS, HIGHEST N OF PUNTA EUGENIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO W
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH N GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 15N. NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST OF SINALOA AND ARE
SHIFTING NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS HURRICANE FAUSTO CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A MEANDERING TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED BY FAUSTO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU
BEFORE FADING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, INCREASING TO
FRESH SPEEDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE
NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG
E WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTENDING
DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W, AND NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA.
SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA.
THIS IS OCCURRING BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 94W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS,
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS CONVECTION N OF 05N TO
11N, FROM PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THU,
THEN MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT
BEFORE INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUN
NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS,
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH, MAY IMPACT THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THU THROUGH FRI,
BUILDING SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FT. STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO REACH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS ON FRI AND BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, REACHING AROUND 8 FT THERE BY MON MORNING.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 800 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HURRICANE FAUSTO DOMINATES CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 119W AND 128W. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF FAUSTO
EXTEND NORTHWARD TO 24N, WITH SEAS TO 8 FT REACHING AS FAR N OF
FAUSTO AS 26N. ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS BETWEEN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FAUSTO, AND ALSO N OF 15N W OF 125W. MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. SW SWELL ENTERING THE
EQUATORIAL WATERS W OF 120W AND RAISING SEAS 7 TO 8 FT S OF 05N.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE FAUSTO WILL MOVE TO 18.0N 126.0W THIS
AFTERNOON, 18.3N 128.7W TONIGHT, 18.6N 131.5W FRI AFTERNOON,
18.8N 134.2W FRI NIGHT, 19.1N 136.7W SAT AFTERNOON, AND 19.5N
139.3W SAT NIGHT. FAUSTO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES W OF 140W SUN AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
STRONG CROSS- EQUATORIAL SWELL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WATERS AND SLOWLY BUILD TODAY THROUGH FRI, THEN REACH 8 FT AND
HIGHER SAT THROUGH MON.
STRIPLING
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