567
WTNT42 KNHC 231441
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE CENTER OF BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DATA FROM
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED, LIKELY DUE TO THE
STORM'S PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY. IN FACT, INFRARED
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW ALMOST ALL OF THE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTER, AND THERE IS LARGE REGION OF HEAVY RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT, BUT THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION.
THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO,
BUT SMOOTHING THROUGH THE WOBBLES AND POTENTIAL CENTER REFORMATIONS
YIELDS A WESTWARD MOTION AT 9 KT. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE A
LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST, ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE,
AND THAT SHOULD BRING THE STORM INLAND OVER TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DUE TO THE POOR STRUCTURE OF
BERTHA AND EXPECTED CONTINUED NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LITTLE
CHANGE IS INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE STORM MAKES ITS FINAL
LANDFALL IN TEXAS. BERTHA WILL LIKELY BECOME A WEAK REMNANT LOW
OR DISSIPATE ENTIRELY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST TODAY.
2. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES, WHERE MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING CONTINUES.
3. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST
AND SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 29.6N 93.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 29.7N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1200Z 29.3N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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