260
WTPZ41 KNHC 231443
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
500 AM HST THU JUL 23 2026
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS ONCE AGAIN IMPACTED FAUSTO THIS MORNING.
WHILE THE HURRICANE BRIEFLY CLOSED OFF AN EYEWALL A FEW HOURS AGO,
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS
ERODED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 70 KT, WHICH FALLS BETWEEN THE LATEST D-MINT AND D-PRINT
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS AND A T4.5/77 KT DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM
TAFB.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD (280 DEGREES) AT 11 KT, AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
A RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF FAUSTO. THERE IS INCREASED
SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS BEGINNING AROUND DAY 3, WITH THE GOOGLE
DEEP MIND NOTABLY FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND THE
HURRICANE REGIONAL MODELS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, CLOSEST TO THE HFIP
CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
WHILE THE LONGER-RANGE FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF FAUSTO
GENERALLY TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE
ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE ISLANDS AT THIS POINT.
FAUSTO CONTINUES TO PERIODICALLY STRUGGLE WITH INTRUSIONS OF
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS FAIRLY LOW, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STRONGER
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
MAY CAUSE CONTINUED BOUTS OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THEN, THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE SHOWS MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BELOW 50 PERCENT BY
THIS WEEKEND. SO ALTHOUGH FAUSTO WILL BE OVER MARGINAL SSTS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS PREDICTED WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS FORECAST KEEPS
FAUSTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH DAY 5, BUT MODEL SIMULATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM COULD STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 17.9N 125.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 18.1N 127.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 18.5N 130.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 18.8N 132.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 19.1N 135.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 19.3N 137.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 19.4N 140.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 20.1N 145.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 20.5N 151.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
FORECASTER REINHART
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