287
AXPZ20 KNHC 231555
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 125.3W AT 23/1500 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PEAK
SEAS ARE NEAR 30 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. FAUSTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME SMALL INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY, AND A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
SWELLS GENERATED BY FAUSTO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FAUSTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
EASTERN AND CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP98): A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
95.5W. A 1007 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N95.5W. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR
OVER THE WEEKEND, WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH, REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THE LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE
THROUGH 7 DAYS. PLEASE, REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95.5W. A 1007 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR
08N95.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 101W. PLEASE, SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION RELATED TO THIS
WAVE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR 08N95.5W TO 06N110W TO 10N120W, THEN RESUMES SW OF
FAUSTO FROM 11N134W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 04N E OF 81W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA,
INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 101W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 116W AND
122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE
FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 915 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. FAUSTO CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING GENTLE NW TO N WINDS AND SEAS
OF 6 TO 7 FT IN W SWELL ACROSS THOSE AREA WATERS.
A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD BETWEEN HURRICANE FAUSTO AND THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AND MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA AND CABO SAN
LUCAS. S TO SW SWELL GENERATING BY FAUSTO IS SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA, AND MIXING WITH THE BUILDING NORTHERLY WIND WAVES TO
PRODUCE SEAS 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS, HIGHEST N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO W WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
EXCEPT FOR FRESH N GAP WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND
DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 15N.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS HURRICANE FAUSTO CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A MEANDERING TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED BY FAUSTO WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY
BEFORE FADING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, INCREASING TO
FRESH SPEEDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE
NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LATEST SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG N
TO E WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTENDING
DOWNWIND TO NEAR 91W, AND NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA.
SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. THIS
IS OCCURRING BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 95.5W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN S
TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TODAY,
THEN MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT
BEFORE INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUN
NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS, ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N95.5W, MAY IMPACT THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR LATER TODAY THROUGH FRI,
BUILDING SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FT. STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO REACH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS ON FRI AND BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, REACHING AROUND 8 FT THERE BY MON MORNING.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 915 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HURRICANE FAUSTO DOMINATES CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF FAUSTO
EXTEND NORTHWARD TO 25N, WITH SEAS TO 8 FT REACHING AS FAR N OF
FAUSTO AS 27N. ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS BETWEEN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FAUSTO, AND ALSO N OF 15N W OF 130W.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. SW SWELL ARE
ENTERING THE EQUATORIAL WATERS W OF 120W WITH RAISING SEAS 7 TO
8 FT S OF 05N.
FOR THE FORECAST, FAUSTO WILL MOVE TO 18.1N 127.4W THIS EVENING,
18.5N 130.1W FRI MORNING, 18.8N 132.9W FRI EVENING, WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 19.1N 135.5W SAT MORNING, 19.3N 137.9W SAT
EVENING, AND 19.4N 140.2W SUN MORNING. FAUSTO WILL CHANGE LITTLE
IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 20.1N 145.7W. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE NEXT TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS AND SLOWLY BUILD TODAY THROUGH FRI,
THEN REACH 8 FT AND HIGHER SAT THROUGH MON.
GR
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