380
WTNT42 KNHC 232037
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
400 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MUCH OF THE
DAY, AND IT NOW APPEARS TO BE INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN TEXAS. THE
STORM REMAINS VERY ASYMMETRIC, WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, WHICH IS NOW MOVING INLAND
OVER TEXAS. AN ASCAT-C PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SUGGEST THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED. BASED ON THAT DATA, SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS, AND ITS DEGRADED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGES, THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.
THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF BERTHA MAKES IT HARD TO COMPUTE ITS
INITIAL MOTION. IN FACT, THE STORM IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
ELONGATED AND MIGHT BE OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH. OUR BEST GUESS OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KT. HOWEVER. THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER COULD REFORM AGAIN TO THE
SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REGARDLESS, BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS EVENING, AND IT FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA IN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THROUGH THE EVENING.
2. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST AND SOUTH TEXAS INTO TONIGHT.
3. COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 29.8N 94.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 29.7N 97.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/R. ZELINSKY
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