929
WTPZ41 KNHC 232038
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
1100 AM HST THU JUL 23 2026
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FAUSTO HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE HURRICANE HAS A RAGGED EYE, WITH A RING OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CONVECTION.
BASED ON THESE STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 75 KT, WHICH FALLS BETWEEN RECENT D-PRINT (72 KT), D-MINT
(76 KT), AND DVORAK (77 KT) INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
A WELL-ESTABLISHED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FAUSTO CONTINUES TO STEER
THE HURRICANE WESTWARD (280/12 KT). THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, KEEPING
FAUSTO ON A WESTWARD HEADING AS IT CROSSES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
BASIN. THE TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE HAS TIGHTENED UP THIS CYCLE, WITH
DECREASED CROSS-TRACK SPREAD COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY. SINCE THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE TRENDED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, THE UPDATED NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION TO REFLECT THE LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS (HCCA AND TVCN). WHILE THE LONGER-RANGE
FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF FAUSTO GENERALLY TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
AFTER STRUGGLING WITH DRY AIR INTRUSIONS EARLIER TODAY, FAUSTO HAS
MANAGED TO CLOSE OFF AN EYEWALL. SLIGHT ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM
STRENGTHENING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IF THE HURRICANE
MAINTAINS THIS STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
HURRICANE IS MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR MASS OVER
MARGINAL (26-26.5C) SSTS, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY
MID-LEVEL SHEAR TO INTRODUCE DRIER AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION ONCE
AGAIN. THE LONGER-TERM NHC FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL REMAINS ON THE
HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THIS FORECAST KEEPS FAUSTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH DAY 5, BUT THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL LIKELY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
FAUSTO TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 18.2N 126.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 18.5N 128.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 18.8N 131.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 19.2N 134.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 19.5N 136.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 19.8N 138.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 20.1N 141.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 20.7N 147.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 21.2N 153.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
FORECASTER REINHART
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page