570
AXPZ20 KNHC 232151
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.2N 126.9W AT 23/2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 30 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. FAUSTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SWELLS GENERATED BY FAUSTO ARE AFFECTING THE WEST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FAUSTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
EASTERN AND CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP98): A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
96W WITH A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 08.5N96W.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE
THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND, WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH, REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.
THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND ALSO THROUGH
7 DAYS. PLEASE, REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W WITH A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE (EP98)
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 08.5N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 88W AND 102W.
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR 08.5N96W TO 06N110W TO 12N116W, THEN RESUMES SW OF
FAUSTO FROM 13N131W TO BEYOND 09N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED N OF 07N E OF 81W AFFECTING PARTS
OF PANAMA, INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA AND WESTERN COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N
TO 12N BETWEEN 88W AND 102W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 995 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FAUSTO CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AND MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO
N WINDS BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA AND CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS
GENERATING BY FAUSTO ARE STILL SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA, AND
MIXING WITH THE BUILDING NORTHERLY WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS 6
TO 8 FT ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS, HIGHEST N OF PUNTA EUGENIA.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO W WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS HURRICANE FAUSTO CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND A MEANDERING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, INCREASING
TO FRESH SPEEDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR DETAILS
ON THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE
OF MEXICO OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LATEST SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG N
TO E WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTENDING
DOWNWIND TO NEAR 91W, AND NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA.
SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. THIS
IS OCCURRING BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 96W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN S
TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SAT BEFORE INCREASING TO FRESH TO
STRONG AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS
ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS, ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 08.5N96W, MAY IMPACT THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR TONIGHT AND FRI,
BUILDING SEAS TO 6 TO 9 FT. STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO REACH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS ON FRI AND BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, REACHING AROUND 8 FT THERE BY MON MORNING.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 995 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HURRICANE FAUSTO DOMINATES CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF FAUSTO
EXTEND NORTHWARD TO 24N, WITH SEAS TO 8 FT REACHING AS FAR N OF
FAUSTO AS 27N. A COUPLE OF ALTIMETER PASSES ALSO INDICATE THAT
THE 12 FT SEAS ARE REACHING AS FAR N AS 23N. ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WATERS BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FAUSTO, AND ALSO
N OF 15N W OF 130W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL. SW SWELL ARE ENTERING THE EQUATORIAL WATERS W OF 120W
WITH RAISING SEAS 6 TO 8 FT S OF 05N.
FOR THE FORECAST, FAUSTO WILL MOVE TO 18.5N 128.9W FRI MORNING,
18.8N 131.7W FRI AFTERNOON, 19.2N 134.3W SAT MORNING, 19.5N
136.5W SAT AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 19.8N
138.8W SUN MORNING, AND 20.1N 141.3W SUN AFTERNOON. FAUSTO WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 20.7N 147.0W
MON AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR
DETAILS ON THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL
OFFSHORE OF MEXICO OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. STRONG CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SWELL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOWLY
BUILD THROUGH FRI, THEN REACH 8 FT AND HIGHER SAT THROUGH MON.
GR
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