779
WTPZ41 KNHC 240252
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
500 PM HST THU JUL 23 2026
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, HURRICANE FAUSTO HAS STRENGTHENED A BIT
MORE. THE EYE IS LESS RAGGED ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, AND MODERATELY DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SURROUND THE
CENTER. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALL
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT.
THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF FAUSTO CONTINUES TO STEER THE
HURRICANE WESTWARD AT 280/13 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THEN FAUSTO WILL BEGIN A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING, WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING JUST NORTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AT DAY 5. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST THIS CYCLE, AND THE UPDATED FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE HCCA MODEL CONSENSUS AID AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND.
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT AROUND FAUSTO REMAINS MARGINAL, WITH SSTS OF
26.5-27C, AND SOME MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ATTEMPTING AND
FAILING TO INTRUDE THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CORE. GIVEN THE
PRESENT STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE, THE INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN STEADY THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREAFTER, FAUSTO WILL MOVE THROUGH
A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY COOLER SSTS
(25.5-26C), AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR MASS, AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASING WESTERLY WIND SHEAR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME SOLUTIONS WITHIN THE GLOBAL AND
HURRICANE REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SUGGEST A FASTER PACE OF
WEAKENING THAN FORECAST, INCLUDING THE POSSIBLE DEGENERATION OF
FAUSTO INTO A REMNANT LOW WHILE APPROACHING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY, THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW FAUSTO AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE RISK OF SOME IMPACTS
FROM WIND AND RAINFALL IS INCREASING. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO SOON TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATION OR MAGNITUDE OF THESE IMPACTS, AND
INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
STORM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 18.3N 128.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 18.5N 130.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 18.8N 133.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 19.1N 135.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 19.6N 137.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 19.8N 140.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 20.1N 142.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 20.7N 149.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 21.3N 154.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
FORECASTER MAHONEY/BERG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page