258
WTPZ41 KNHC 240839
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
1100 PM HST THU JUL 23 2026
AN EARLIER GMI MICROWAVE PASS AROUND 0104 UTC SHOWED THE WESTERN
EYEWALL OF FAUSTO STARTING TO ERODE. SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY,
HOWEVER, INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION WITH
COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR -75C HAS WRAPPED BACK AROUND THE INNER CORE.
MEANWHILE, THE EYE CONTINUES TO APPEAR RAGGED FROM TIME TO TIME.
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 81 TO 88 KT,
WHILE THE SUBJECTIVE TAFB DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
T4.5/77 KT. GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND A BLEND OF THESE
ESTIMATES, THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO STEER FAUSTO TOWARD THE WEST, OR
280 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THIS GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THIS
TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS JUST NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY
DAY 5. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH
REMAINS LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR
THE HCCA CORRECTED-CONSENSUS AID AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE
MEAN.
FAUSTO REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 26–27C AND LOW-TO-MODERATE MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR,
WHICH COULD ALLOW THE INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. SURROUNDING DRY AIR HAS SO FAR FAILED TO PENETRATE THE INNER
CORE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE HOSTILE IN 36 TO 48
HOURS AS MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 50 PERCENT,
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WESTERLY WIND SHEAR BEYOND DAY 3.
ACCORDINGLY, THE UPDATED FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL TO STEADY
WEAKENING, IN LINE WITH RECENT MODEL TRENDS. WHILE SEVERAL REGIONAL
HURRICANE MODELS, PARTICULARLY THOSE WITH MORE NORTHERN TRACKS,
DEPICT FASTER WEAKENING AND DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW BEFORE DAY 5,
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY. AS THE TRACK
FORECAST LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, FAUSTO
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY
PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE RISK OF SOME IMPACTS
FROM WIND AND RAINFALL IS INCREASING. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO SOON TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATION OR MAGNITUDE OF THESE IMPACTS, AND
INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
STORM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 18.5N 129.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 18.8N 131.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 19.1N 134.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 19.5N 136.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 19.8N 139.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 20.1N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 20.4N 144.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 21.0N 150.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 21.5N 156.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER KELLY
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