889
AXPZ20 KNHC 240952 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 24 2026
CORRECTED SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 128.4W, OR ABOUT 1075 NM
WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 24/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 32 FT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FAUSTO HAS
APPEARS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE PAST FEW HOURS. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
CENTER OVER IN THE E SEMICIRCLE, WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW
QUADRANT. FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS PRESENT MOTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SWELLS GENERATED BY FAUSTO ARE AFFECTING THE WEST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FAUSTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
STORM WARNING: LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP98 NEAR 09N97W 1007 MB,
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE-FORCE IN ABOUT 24
HOURS OR SOONER, AND STORM-FORCE OF 45 TO 55 KT AFTERWARD.
PRESENTLY, SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT WITH THE LOW, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD RATHER QUICKLY FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE WINDS REACH STORM-
FORCE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AT PEAK OF AROUND 18 FT BY LATE
SAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM IS
LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE OF
MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF STORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PLEASE, REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV AND PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FAUSTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW IS ALONG
97W FROM 03N TO 14N, WITH THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09N97W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 06N TO 12N
BETWEEN 97W AND 103W, AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 103W AND
105W. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA TO 08N78W TO 10N90W TO LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP98,
NEAR 09N97W TO 08N107W AND TO 09N116W. IT RESUMES SW OF
FAUSTO NEAR 11N139W TO BEYOND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-85W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 1075 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FAUSTO CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AND MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO
N WINDS BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA AND CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS
GENERATING BY FAUSTO ARE STILL SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA, AND
MIXING WITH THE BUILDING NORTHERLY WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS 6
TO 8 FT ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS, HIGHEST N OF PUNTA EUGENIA.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO W WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS HURRICANE FAUSTO CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
FAUSTO AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL INDUCE FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH FRI
MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE MORNINGS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IS
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG N TO E WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND EXTENDING DOWNWIND TO NEAR 91W, AND NORTHWARD TO
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS BASED
ON ALTIMETER DATA. THIS IS OCCURRING BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE WITH
AXIS ALONG 96W. THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH
SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE AT
NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH
SAT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SW
SWELL WILL REMAIN ELSEWHERE. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 09N97W MAY IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA THROUGH FRI, BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT. CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS ON FRI, AND BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MON BEFORE
IS BEGINS TO DECAY ON TUE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 1075 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HURRICANE FAUSTO DOMINATES CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF FAUSTO
EXTEND NORTHWARD TO 24N, WITH SEAS TO 8 FT REACHING AS FAR N OF
FAUSTO AS 27N. A COUPLE OF ALTIMETER PASSES ALSO INDICATE THAT
THE 12 FT SEAS ARE REACHING AS FAR N AS 23N. ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WATERS BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FAUSTO, AND ALSO
N OF 15N W OF 130W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL. SW SWELL ARE ENTERING THE EQUATORIAL WATERS W OF 120W
WITH RAISING SEAS 6 TO 8 FT S OF 05N.
FOR THE FORECAST, FAUSTO WILL MOVE TO NEAR 18.5N 130.4W FRI
MORNING, TO NEAR 18.8N 133.1W FRI EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT TO NEAR 19.1N 135.5W SAT MORNING, 19.6N
137.8W SAT EVENING, 19.8N 140.1W SUN MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM W OF THE AREA NEAR 20.1N 142.8W SUN EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE
NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL HAS
BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH FRI, THEN
REACH 8 FT AND HIGHER SAT THROUGH MON.
AGUIRRE
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