584
AXPZ20 KNHC 241022 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 24 2026
CORRECTED TO INCLUDE FAUSTO FORECAST IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.5N 129.9W, OR ABOUT 1150 NM
WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 24/0900 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 32 FT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. FAUSTO
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS PRESENT MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SWELLS
GENERATED BY FAUSTO ARE AFFECTING THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FAUSTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
STORM WARNING: LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP98 NEAR NEW 1006 MB, IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE-FORCE LATER TODAY AND
STORM-FORCE OF 45 TO 55 KT AFTERWARD. PRESENTLY, SEAS ARE 8 TO 10
FT WITH THE LOW UNDER WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH AT NIGHT AS THE WINDS REACH
STORM-FORCE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AT PEAK OF AROUND 18 FT
BY LATE SAT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N
BETWEEN 102W-106W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND REMAINS
WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF STORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
PLEASE, REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV AND PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FAUSTO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EARLIER WAS ALONG 97W IS NO LONGER
IDENTIFIABLE AS THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
TO 08N78W TO NEW TO LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP98, NEAR 09N99W TO
06N110W AND TO 09N122W. IT RESUMES SOUTH OF FAUSTO NEAR 12N129W TO
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
06N TO 09N BETWEEN 119W-123W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 82W-86W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
A STORM WARNING.
IN THE WAKE OF FAUSTO A RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS
PATTERN SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA,
AND MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS BETWEEN PUNTA
EUGENIA AND CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS GENERATING BY FAUSTO ARE STILL
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA, AND MIXING WITH THE BUILDING NORTHERLY
WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS, HIGHEST
N OF PUNTA EUGENIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO W WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS MAY POSSIBLY IMPACT
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOME OF THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 12 FT. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF FAUSTO AND A TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NORTH WINDS NORTH
OF PUNTA EUGENIA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
FROM EARLY SAT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTENDING DOWNWIND TO NEAR 91W, AND NORTHWARD
TO NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS
BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. THIS IS OCCURRING BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE
WITH AXIS ALONG 96W. THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH
SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PULSE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR NEW MAY
IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA THROUGH FRI, BUILDING
SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN
TO REACH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND BUILD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MON BEFORE DECAYING TUE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO, CENTERED ABOUT 1150 NM WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HURRICANE FAUSTO DOMINATES CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 12N TO 27N BETWEEN 121W AND 135W. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF FAUSTO
EXTEND NORTHWARD TO 24N, WITH SEAS TO 8 FT REACHING AS FAR N OF
FAUSTO AS 27N. A COUPLE OF ALTIMETER PASSES ALSO INDICATE THAT
THE 12 FT SEAS ARE REACHING AS FAR N AS 23N. ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WATERS BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FAUSTO, AND ALSO
NORTH OF 15N WEST OF ABOUT 130W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SEAS
OVER THE EQUATORIAL WATERS WEST OF 120W BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
FOR THE FORECAST, FAUSTO WILL MOVE TO NEAR 18.8N 131.9W THIS
AFTERNOON, TO NEAR 19.1N 134.5W LATE TONIGHT, TO NEAR 19.5N 136.8W
SAT AFTERNOON, TO NEAR 19.8N 139.0W LATE SAT NIGHT, THEN WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 20.1N 141.5W SUN AFTERNOON.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE NEXT
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO
8 TO 9 FT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AGUIRRE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page