363
WTPZ41 KNHC 241435
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
500 AM HST FRI JUL 24 2026
FAUSTO HAS BECOME A WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
FAIRLY SYMMETRIC, AND THERE IS A CLOSED RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A ROUGHLY 15 N MI DIAMETER EYE. BEYOND THE INNER CORE,
THE HURRICANE IS MAINTAINING SOME CURVED BANDS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CENTER, AND WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 77 TO 102 KT, AND BASED ON A BLEND OF
THAT DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 90 KT. FAUSTO'S
WIND FIELD IS A LITTLE SMALLER THAN AVERAGE WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER
HURRICANES IN SIMILAR LOCATIONS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 14 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST
APPEARS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF FAUSTO DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO MOVE WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME PACE. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND LIES ON THE
FAST SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH HCCA AND
GDMI. THIS TRACK TAKES FAUSTO NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FAUSTO IS LIKELY NEAR ITS PEAK
INTENSITY. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED TO CAPTURE THE TRENDS IN FAUSTO'S INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. NONETHELESS, DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY LOSE STRENGTH, AND AN INCREASE
IN WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY AID IN
THAT WEAKENING TREND. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, AND SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FAUSTO WILL BE
A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ALTHOUGH FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK,
THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF SOME IMPACTS FROM WIND AND RAINFALL.
HOWEVER, IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATION OR MAGNITUDE
OF THESE IMPACTS, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS STORM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 18.6N 131.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 18.7N 133.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 19.0N 135.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 19.4N 137.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 19.8N 140.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 20.1N 142.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 20.3N 145.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 21.0N 151.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 21.6N 157.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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