950
WTPZ42 KNHC 241437
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
900 AM CST FRI JUL 24 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT THE NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING WELL OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. IN ADDITION, 0807 UTC AMSR-2 PASSIVE MICROWAVE
IMAGES INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
GOOD DEFINITION. THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS IT
COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, WITH DEEP CONVECTION
MOSTLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. SINCE
THIS SYSTEM MEETS TROPICAL CYCLONE CRITERIA, WE ARE INITIATING
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KT BASED ON A T2.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. SOME
SCATTEROMETER DATA EXPECTED LATER TODAY SHOULD HELP REFINE THE
CENTER POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (285/10 KT), BUT
THIS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THE DEPRESSION JUST FORMED. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO ITS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. OVERALL, THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH LIMITED CROSS-TRACK SPREAD. THERE ARE MORE
DIFFERENCES IN THE ALONG-TRACK DIRECTION, WITH THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS. THE
FIRST NHC TRACK FORECAST USES A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND GENERALLY
FALLS BETWEEN THE SIMPLE (IVCN) AND CORRECTED (HCCA) CONSENSUS AIDS.
GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM SSTS AROUND
30C, AND A STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ARE LIKELY TO
SUPPORT STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
STRENGTHENING, PARTICULARLY IN THE 24-72 H WINDOW WHEN THE SHEAR
FALLS BELOW 10 KT. THE DTOPS SHOWS A 76 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 65-KT
INCREASE IN 72 H, AND MORE THAN 60 PERCENT OF THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST EXPLICITLY SHOWS RI BETWEEN 36-72 H AND HAS
IT REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS EARLY NEXT WEEK, IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE SIMPLE CONSENSUS (IVCN) AND SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HCCA AID.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 9.0N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 9.3N 101.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 10.5N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 11.7N 106.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 12.9N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 14.0N 110.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 15.3N 112.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 17.2N 115.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
FORECASTER REINHART
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