483
AXPZ20 KNHC 241600
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.6N 131.2W AT 24/1500 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN
128W AND 133W. SEAS PEAKING TO 28 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF
STRONGEST WINDS, AND 12 FT SEAS OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM S
SEMICIRCLE, 270 NM NE QUADRANT AND 240 NM NW QUADRANT. SWELLS
GENERATED BY FAUSTO ARE AFFECTING THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE. FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 9.0N 100.5W AT
24/1500 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN THE AREA
OF STRONGEST WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
PREVAILS FROM 04N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 109W. SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND
COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORIES AND PUBLIC ADVISORIES OF BOTH SYSTEMS AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 83W AND
N OF 06N, MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS, MAINLY E OF 87W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 07N108W. THE ITCZ IS
FROM 07N108W TO 04N127W, THEN RESUMES NEAR 08N132W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
IN THE WAKE OF FAUSTO A RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS
PATTERN SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA,
AND MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS BETWEEN PUNTA
EUGENIA AND CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS GENERATING BY FAUSTO ARE STILL
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA, AND MIXING WITH THE BUILDING NORTHERLY
WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS, HIGHEST
N OF PUNTA EUGENIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO W WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WILL STRENGTHEN TO
A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 9.3N 101.7W THIS EVENING, MOVE TO 10.5N
103.7W SAT MORNING, 11.7N 106.2W SAT EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 12.9N 108.5W SUN MORNING, 14.0N 110.5W SUN
EVENING, AND 15.3N 112.3W MON MORNING. SEVEN-E WILL CHANGE LITTLE
IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES 17.2N 115.0W BY EARLY TUE. OTHERWISE,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE
OF FAUSTO AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
FRESH TO STRONG NORTH WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. THESE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTENDING DOWNWIND TO NEAR 91W, AND NORTHWARD
TO NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS
BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. THIS IS OCCURRING BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE
WITH AXIS ALONG 96W. THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH
SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PULSE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR NEW MAY
IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA THROUGH FRI, BUILDING
SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN
TO REACH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND BUILD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MON BEFORE DECAYING TUE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO.
HURRICANE FAUSTO DOMINATES CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 12N TO 27N BETWEEN 121W AND 135W. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF FAUSTO
EXTEND NORTHWARD TO 24N, WITH SEAS TO 8 FT REACHING AS FAR N OF
FAUSTO AS 27N. A COUPLE OF ALTIMETER PASSES ALSO INDICATE THAT
THE 12 FT SEAS ARE REACHING AS FAR N AS 26N. ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WATERS BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FAUSTO, AND
ALSO NORTH OF 15N WEST OF ABOUT 130W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
WITH MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
SEAS OVER THE EQUATORIAL WATERS WEST OF 120W BY EARLY THIS
EVENING.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE FAUSTO FAUSTO WILL MOVE TO 18.7N
133.2W THIS EVENING, 19.0N 135.7W SAT MORNING, 19.4N 137.9W SAT
EVENING, 19.8N 140.2W SUN MORNING, 20.1N 142.9W SUN EVENING, AND
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.3N 145.8W MON MORNING. FAUSTO
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 21.0N 151.9 BY
EARLY TUE. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR
DETAILS ON THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL
OFFSHORE OF MEXICO IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THE CROSS- EQUATORIAL
SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
ERA
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