114
WTPZ41 KNHC 242036
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
1100 AM HST FRI JUL 24 2026
THE EYEWALL OF FAUSTO HAS INTERMITTENTLY OPENED UP THIS MORNING AS
INTRUSIONS OF DRIER AIR DISRUPTED THE INNER CORE CONVECTION. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT A RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH PROMINENT
CONVECTIVE BANDING NOTED AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF
THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THE LATEST UW-CIMSS
ADT/AIDT, D-PRINT, AND SATCON ESTIMATES.
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD (275/13 KT) TO THE SOUTH
OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVAILING
STEERING PATTERN ARE ANTICIPATED, SO FAUSTO SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AT A SIMILAR SPEED WHILE IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN AND TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND A BIT
FARTHER NORTH AT 72-120 H, AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST AT THESE TIMES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRENDS.
BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK, AND THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE, ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
SEEMS UNLIKELY. AS FAUSTO CONTINUES MOVING INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT
OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS, THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE HURRICANE
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER 72 H,
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RATE OF
WEAKENING ON FAUSTO'S APPROACH TO HAWAII. IN ADDITION, THE WIND
FIELD IS PREDICTED TO SHRINK AND BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC ON DAYS 4-5,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST THIS CYCLE, AND FAUSTO IS STILL PREDICTED TO BE A TROPICAL
STORM WHEN IT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ALTHOUGH FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK,
THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF SOME IMPACTS FROM WIND AND RAINFALL.
HOWEVER, IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATION OR MAGNITUDE
OF THESE IMPACTS, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS STORM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 18.7N 132.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 18.9N 134.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 19.3N 136.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 19.6N 139.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 19.9N 141.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 20.2N 144.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 20.5N 147.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 21.3N 152.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 22.0N 157.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER REINHART
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