825
WTPZ42 KNHC 242037
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
300 PM CST FRI JUL 24 2026
GOES-18 RGB COMPOSITE IMAGERY AND A 1606 UTC METOP-B SCATTEROMETER
OVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED. DEEP
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND, AND A DEVELOPING CURVED
BAND WRAPS HALFWAY AROUND THE CENTER. THE ASCAT DATA (WHICH SHOWED
35-38 KT BELIEVABLE SURFACE VECTOR WINDS) AND THE TAFB DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 SUPPORT 35-40 KT. HOWEVER,
DVORAK RULES PREVENT A REASONABLE T3.0 (45 KT) CLASSIFICATION. BASED
ON THESE DATA, THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 40-KT TROPICAL
STORM GENEVIEVE.
THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS UNDERCUTTING THE LIGHTER DIFFLUENT FLOW
ABOVE 250 MB, AND APPEARS TO BE IMPINGING ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. THE SHIPS AND THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS
SUGGEST, HOWEVER, THAT THE SHEAR WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THE LATEST NOAA AOML OCEAN ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
GENEVIEVE WILL BE TRAVERSING A REGION OF VERY HIGH TROPICAL CYCLONE
OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO. AS A RESULT,
VARIOUS RAPID INTENSIFICATION TECHNIQUES AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
(GDM) ENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO PREDICT A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT
GENEVIEVE WILL UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) BY
MID-PERIOD. ACCORDINGLY, THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES
TO REFLECT RI BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS AND GENEVIEVE BECOMING A MAJOR
HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK, USING A BLEND OF THE HFIP HCCA CORRECTED
CONSENSUS AND THE GDM.
GENEVIEVE'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
OR 290/11 KT WHILE BEING STEERED BY MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT, WHILE LYING CLOSELY TO
THE HCCA CONSENSUS AND THE GDM ENSEMBLE MEAN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 9.2N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 9.9N 103.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 11.2N 105.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 12.4N 108.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 13.5N 110.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 14.8N 112.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 16.1N 113.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 17.9N 116.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 19.4N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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