437
WTPZ41 KNHC 250238
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
500 PM HST FRI JUL 24 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FAUSTO'S OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE HURRICANE
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WELL-DEFINED AND FAIRLY SYMMETRIC INNER CORE,
WITH A CLOSED RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE AND
WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS
RANGE FROM AROUND 80 TO 90 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 90 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/12 KT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN POSITIONED NORTH OF FAUSTO THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, STEERING THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS, WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER SPREAD
DEVELOPING THEREAFTER AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES
BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA) TO THE NORTH AND THE ECMWF
TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS FAUSTO JUST NORTH
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME, THE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE TYPICAL DAY 4-5 TRACK
ERROR ENVELOPE, AND INTERESTS ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE HURRICANE.
FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WELL-ORGANIZED INNER CORE INTO
SATURDAY WHILE REMAINING OVER WARM WATERS IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THEREAFTER, PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, A DRIER SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT, AND INCREASING
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD INITIATE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SIMILAR EVOLUTION, MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONE INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY ERODING THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE TIME FAUSTO APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, IT IS FORECAST TO BE A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM WITH THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ALTHOUGH FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING ITS
EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER
JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, BUT A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN
A GREATER RISK OF STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. INTERESTS
ACROSS HAWAII SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAUSTO.
2. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SWELLS GENERATED BY FAUSTO WILL REACH THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CYCLONE, PRODUCING
INCREASING SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. SURF IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS EAST-FACING SHORES OF THE EASTERN END OF THE
STATE ON SUNDAY, SPREADING WESTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND
CONTINUE BUILDING THROUGH TUESDAY AS FAUSTO APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 18.7N 133.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 19.0N 135.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 19.4N 138.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 19.7N 140.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 20.0N 142.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 20.3N 145.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 20.8N 148.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 21.9N 154.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 22.6N 159.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS/EVANS/PIERCE
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