534
WTPZ42 KNHC 250239
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
900 PM CST FRI JUL 24 2026
A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER GENEVIEVE'S
CENTER, AND A RECENT GMI MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH AN ELONGATED BUT SOMEWHAT BROKEN
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION. GIVEN
THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE, THREE SEPARATE UW-CIMSS DMINT ESTIMATES
FROM AMSR2, GMI, AND SSMIS MICROWAVE PASSES AT 2036, 2245, AND
2322 UTC, RESPECTIVELY, ALL YIELDED ESTIMATES AROUND 45 KT, AND
THAT IS THE CURRENT INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES, WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN, WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF GENEVIEVE'S MOTION OVER
THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND SHOULD KEEP THE STORM AWAY FROM THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD, PICKING UP A
LITTLE SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THEN SLOWING DOWN ON
DAYS 3-5. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST, WHICH LIES VERY NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.
GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A NEARLY IDEAL ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE
FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THESE INGREDIENTS INCLUDE VERY WARM OCEAN
WATERS NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, RELATIVELY LITTLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR,
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS, AND INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
DEGREE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS GENEVIEVE'S ULTIMATE PEAK
INTENSITY. INTERESTINGLY, THE HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE
MEAN (GDM), WHICH HAVE PROVEN TO HAVE SOME OF THE BEST RECENT SKILL
IN INTENSITY FORECASTING, ARE AT THE UPPER AND LOWER BOUNDS OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE (HCCA PEAKS AT 130 KT WHILE GDM MAXES OUT AROUND
100 KT). THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS PREDICTION, SHOWING GENEVIEVE REACHING CATEGORY 4 STATUS
IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HAFS-A AND
-B, FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE, AND LGEM MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 9.5N 102.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 10.4N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 11.6N 106.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 12.8N 108.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 14.0N 110.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 15.4N 112.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 16.6N 114.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 18.1N 117.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 19.6N 120.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
FORECASTER BERG
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