068
AXPZ20 KNHC 250405
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.7N 133.9W, OR ABOUT 500 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAWAII AT 25/0300 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 12 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FAUSTO'S OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT A WELL-DEFINED AND FAIRLY SYMMETRIC INNER CORE. THE
IMAGERY REVEALS NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE AND SW QUADRANTS, WITHIN 150 NM
IN THE SE QUADRANT AND 120 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. FAUSTO IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SWELLS GENERATED BY FAUSTO ARE AFFECTING THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY SUN. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE IS CENTERED NEAR 9.5N 102.6W AT 25/0300
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS INCREASING OVER THE CENTER OF GENEVIEVE. THE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMING BANDING FEATURES MAINLY IN THE NW
SEMICIRCLE OF GENEVIEVE. CONVECTION WITH THESE BANDING FEATURES
IS OF THE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG TYPE INTENSITY WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N101W TO 11N104W TO 08N105W AND TO
8.5N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 07N103W TO 05N106W. GENEVIEVE IS
FORECAST TO STAY WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT CONTINUES IN WEST-NORTHWESWARD MOTION.
SIGNIFICANT TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SAT AND
A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE SUN. SWELLS GENERATED BY GENEVIEVE ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY REACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON MON. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORIES AND PUBLIC ADVISORIES OF BOTH SYSTEMS AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 86W
NORTH OF 05N TO INLAND CENTRAL HONDURAS AND WESTERN NICARAGUA.
IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 10N TO 11N.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
TO ACROSS CENTRAL PANAMA AND TO 08N78W AND TO 10N96.5W IT
RESUMES TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GENEVIEVE AT 08N105W AND
TO 07.5N112W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07.5N112W TO 07N120W
TO 06N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W-127W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE WATERS WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO AND GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS
ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
OVER WATERS SOUTHEAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 16N ALONG WITH
SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL. FRESH TO STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE NORTHERN OUTER PERIPHERY OF
GENEVIEVE ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF 16N ALONG WITH SEAS 7 TO 11 FT IN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE WILL MOVE TO NEAR
NEAR 10.4N 104.1W SAT MORNING, THEN STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
NEAR 11.6N 106.5W SAT EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT
GUSTS 85 KT, TO NEAR NEAR 12.8N 108.8W SUN MORNING, AND BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT REACHES TO NEAR 14.0N 110.8W SUN EVENING,
THEN TO NEAR 15.4N 112.6W MON MORNING AS A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT AND MOVE TO NEAR 16.6N
114.1W MON EVENING. GENEVIEVE WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS
IT MOVES TO NEAR 18.1N 117.0W TUE EVENING. AS GENEVIEVE TRACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NEXT WEEK, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
SWELLS FROM GENEVIEVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE OFFSHORE ZONES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AT BUILDING SEAS OVER THESE WATERS
TO 12 FT AND GREATER.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND EXTENDING DOWNWIND TO NEAR 91W, AND NORTHWARD TO
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. THE
MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN S
TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN
SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE
LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA WHERE
SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO AND ON TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE.
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS IMPACTING A PORTION OF THE WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
CIRCULATION OF FAUSTO EXTEND NORTHWARD TO 25N, WITH SEAS TO 8 FT
REACHING AS FAR NORTH OF FAUSTO AS 27N. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WATERS BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FAUSTO, AND
ALSO NORTH OF 15N WEST OF ABOUT 120W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
WITH MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
SEAS OVER THE EQUATORIAL WATERS WEST OF 120W BY EARLY THIS
EVENING.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE FAUSTO WILL MOVE TO NEAR 19.0N 135.6W
SAT MORNING, 19.4N 138.0W SAT EVENING, 19.7N 140.2W SUN MORNING,
AND TO WEST OF THE AREA AT SUN EVENING. GENEVIEVE WILL MOVE TO
NEAR 10.4N 104.1W SAT MORNING, THEN STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
NEAR 11.6N 106.5W SAT EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT
GUSTS 85 KT, TO NEAR NEAR 12.8N 108.8W SUN MORNING, AND BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT REACHES TO NEAR 14.0N 110.8W SUN EVENING,
THEN TO NEAR 15.4N 112.6W MON MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 110
KT GUSTS 135 KT AND TO NEAR 16.6N 114.1W MON EVENING. GENEVIEVE
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 18.1N 117.0W
TUE EVENING. AS GENEVIEVE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NEXT WEEK, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT
OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
AGUIRRE
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