892
WTPZ42 KNHC 250834
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
300 AM CST SAT JUL 25 2026
MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA RECEIVED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY INDICATES THAT GENEVIEVE HAS A SMALL INNER WIND CORE, WITH
CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG CONVECTION NEAR AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER, IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER A TIGHT CONVECTIVE
SPIRAL SEEN IN THE MICROWAVE DATA HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP SINCE
THE OVERPASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE GENERALLY NEAR
45 KT, SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL 34-KT
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN DECREASED A LITTLE BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER
DATA.
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER
OF GENEVIEVE'S MOTION OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND SHOULD KEEP THE STORM
AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME UPS AND DOWNS IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES NEAR BOTH HCCA AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STEADY
TO RAPID STRENGTHENING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE SMALL
INNER CORE. WHILE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE NORTHERLY SHEAR, THE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES OF THE SHIPS MODEL ARE VERY HIGH, WITH
A 75-90 PERCENT CHANCE OF 55 KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48
H. THE MAIN ISSUE REMAINS JUST HOW STRONG GENEVIEVE WILL GET. THE
HCCA MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 130 KT, WHILE
MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED BETWEEN PEAK INTENSITIES OF
100-115 KT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL KEEP THE 115 KT PEAK
INTENSITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH IS AT THE UPPER EDGE OF
EVERYTHING BUT HCCA. AFTER REACHING PEAK INTENSITY IN ABOUT 60 H,
GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A DRIER AIR MASS AND EVENTUALLY
COOLER WATERS. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE SLOW TO STEADY
WEAKENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 10.0N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 11.0N 105.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 12.2N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 13.4N 109.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 14.7N 111.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 16.0N 113.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 17.0N 114.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 18.5N 117.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 20.1N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page