898
AXPZ20 KNHC 251005
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 135.1W, OR ABOUT 1130 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAWAII AT 25/0900, MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT FAUSTO'S OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. FAUSTO CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A WELL-DEFINED
EYE AND WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE IMAGERY SHOWS
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE, ALSO WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE SE QUADRANT AND 180 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION DENOTED AN OUTER WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 20N133W TO 21N135W TO 19N138W AND TO 18N137W. FAUSTO IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SWELLS GENERATED BY FAUSTO ARE AFFECTING THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY SUN. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE IS CENTERED NEAR 10.0N 103.6W, OR ABOUT
480 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO, MEXICO AT 25/0900 UTC
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS INCREASING OVER AND NEAR THE CENTER OF GENEVIEVE.
THE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMING BANDING FEATURES MAINLY IN THE NW
SEMICIRCLE OF GENEVIEVE. CONVECTION WITH THESE BANDING FEATURES
IS OF THE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG TYPE INTENSITY WITHIN
120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE, WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE, AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
103W AND 107.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. GENEVIEVE
IS FORECAST TO STAY WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT CONTINUES IN WEST-NORTHWESWARD MOTION.
SIGNIFICANT TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND
A MAJOR HURRICANE BY EARLY MON. SWELLS GENERATED BY GENEVIEVE
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY REACH SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON MON. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORIES AND PUBLIC ADVISORIES OF BOTH SYSTEMS AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 88W
NORTH OF 03N TO INLAND EASTERN EL SALVADOR AND ACROSS WESTERN
HONDURAS. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF
THE WAVE FROM 11N TO 14N, AND WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE WAVE
FROM 03N TO 05N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN COLOMBIA TO
07N78W TO 08N88W AND TO 09N94W. IT RESUMES SOUTHWEST OF
GENEVIEVE AT 08N105W AND CONTINUES TO 07N112W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N112W TO 08N125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 114W-118W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE WATERS WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO AND GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS
ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
OVER WATERS SOUTHEAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 16N ALONG WITH
SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL. FRESH TO STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE NORTHERN OUTER PERIPHERY OF
GENEVIEVE ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF 16N ALONG WITH SEAS 7 TO 11 FT IN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE IS ABOUT 480 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO, MEXICO OR NEAR 10N103.6W AT 25/0900
UTC MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. GENEVIEVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS
IT MOVES TO NEAR 11.0N 105.3W THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR
12.2N 107.5W LATE TONIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT
GUSTS 85 KT AND BEGIN TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT
REACHES NEAR 13.4N 109.8W SUN AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT, REACH NEAR 14.7N 111.7W LATE SUN NIGHT,
NEAR 16.0N 113.4W MON AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115
KT GUSTS 140 KT AND TO NEAR 17.0N 114.8W LATE MON NIGHT.
GENEVIEVE WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR
18.5N 117.9W LATE TUE NIGHT. AS GENEVIEVE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NEXT WEEK, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. SWELLS FROM GENEVIEVE
WILL IMPACT JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OUTSIDE THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT FOR ITS ENTRANCE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
BUILDING SEAS OVER THESE WATERS TO 12 FT AND GREATER.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND EXTENDING DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W, AND NORTHWARD TO
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER MOST
OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
AND NEARSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST.
THE SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL SUBSIDE AROUND MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO AND ON TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE.
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS IMPACTING A PORTION OF THE WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
CIRCULATION OF FAUSTO EXTEND NORTHWARD TO 25N, WITH SEAS TO 8 FT
REACHING AS FAR NORTH OF FAUSTO AS 27N. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WATERS BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FAUSTO, AND
ALSO NORTH OF 15N WEST OF ABOUT 120W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
WITH MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
SEAS OVER THE EQUATORIAL WATERS WEST OF 120W STARTING THIS
MORNING.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE FAUSTO WILL MOVE TO NEAR TO 19.1N
136.8W THIS AFTERNOON, 19.5N 139.1W SUN MORNING TO WEST OF
THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON. GENEVIEVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO
NEAR 11.0N 105.3W THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55
KT GUSTS 65 KT, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 12.2N 107.5W LATE
TONIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT AND BEGIN
TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT REACHES NEAR 13.4N 109.8W
SUN AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT,
REACH NEAR 14.7N 111.7W LATE SUN NIGHT, NEAR 16.0N 113.4W MON
AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT AND TO
NEAR 17.0N 114.8W LATE MON NIGHT. GENEVIEVE WILL CHANGE LITTLE
IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 18.5N 117.9W LATE TUE NIGHT.
AS GENEVIEVE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR NEXT WEEK, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL MENTIONED EARLIER WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL;
WATERS SOUTH OF ABOUT 03N AND BETWEEN 94W AND 128W GOING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
AGUIRRE
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