946
WTPZ41 KNHC 251433
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
500 AM HST SAT JUL 25 2026
THE RECENT SATELLITE EVOLUTION OF FAUSTO SUGGESTS THE HURRICANE MAY
HAVE UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE RAGGED EYE OF THE
HURRICANE HAS GROWN IN SIZE TO ABOUT 30 N MI, WHILE THE INNER
EYEWALL CONVECTION DECAYED EARLIER THIS MORNING. A DRY SLOT NOTED ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HURRICANE SHOWS THERE ARE STILL POCKETS OF
DRY AIR TANGLED UP WITHIN THE CIRCULATION, BUT FOR NOW THE RING OF
DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE IS CLOSED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 85 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK (77 KT) AND
OBJECTIVE (77-94 KT) ESTIMATES. A G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION
LATER TODAY WILL SAMPLE THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND FAUSTO.
BASED ON THE STRUCTURAL CHANGES OF FAUSTO, SMALL NEAR-TERM INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, ALL OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS FAUSTO MOVES
OVER MARGINAL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO AN EVEN DRIER
ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION, FAUSTO WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHILE IT APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WHICH
WILL DISPLACE THE CONVECTION AND STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH FOLLOWS THE LATEST SIMPLE (IVCN) AND
CORRECTED (HCCA) CONSENSUS AIDS. FAUSTO IS PREDICTED TO BE A
WEAKENING, SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT PASSES NEAR HAWAII.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP FAUSTO ON A WESTWARD HEADING
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BRINGING THE CENTER INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC BASIN ON SUNDAY AND TOWARD HAWAII EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
CENTER OF FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THIS CYCLE, AND THE UPDATED NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. WHILE THE CURRENT
FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF FAUSTO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, INTERESTS ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO FORECAST UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING ITS EXACT
TRACK AND INTENSITY. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER
JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN A
GREATER RISK OF STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. INTERESTS
ACROSS HAWAII SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAUSTO.
2. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SWELLS GENERATED BY FAUSTO WILL REACH THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CYCLONE, PRODUCING
INCREASING SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. SURF IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS EAST-FACING SHORES OF THE EASTERN END OF THE
STATE ON SUNDAY, SPREADING WESTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND
CONTINUE BUILDING THROUGH TUESDAY AS FAUSTO APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 19.1N 136.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 19.5N 138.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 19.9N 140.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.3N 142.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 20.7N 145.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 21.1N 148.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 21.6N 151.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 156.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 23.5N 161.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER REINHART
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