968
WTPZ42 KNHC 251435
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
900 AM CST SAT JUL 25 2026
SINCE THE PRIOR ADVISORY, GENEVIEVE'S STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED, WITH A
FORMATIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS BELOW -75 C
BLOSSOMING OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER. WHILE EARLIER MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWED THE INNER CORE WAS STILL ORGANIZING WITH THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION ON ITS EASTERN FLANK, FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES
SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION IS NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. TAFB
PROVIDED A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55 KT FOR
1200 UTC, WHILE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A BIT LOWER
RANGING FROM 40 TO 55 KT. FAVORING THE HIGHER SIDE OF THESE
ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
GENEVIEVE JOGGED A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, BUT
APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT
300/13 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED; A
STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC SHOULD KEEP GENEVIEVE ON A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SOME GRADUAL SLOWING. THE TRACK GUIDANCE AIDS
REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, AND OTHER THAN THE INITIAL POSITION
ADJUSTMENT, THE LATEST NHC TRACK IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR ONE,
BLENDING THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN (GDMI) AND HFIP CORRECTED
CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA) TRACK GUIDANCE.
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
GENEVIEVE'S ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) WITH VERY WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS, 30 C) AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. THE SMALL CORE OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ANOTHER FACTOR THAT WILL LIKELY ENABLE A
RAPID CHANGE IN INTENSITY. NOT SURPRISINGLY, THE RI INDICES ARE VERY
HIGH FOR GENEVIEVE, OVER BOTH THE NEXT 24 AND 48 H. THE LATEST NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST NOW SHOWS RI BEGINNING LATER TODAY, AND THE
TIMING OF PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN MOVED UP TO 48 H. AFTER THAT TIME,
SSTS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY COOL, AND THE ECMWF-SHIPS GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWS A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SHEAR AROUND THE DAY 3 TIME FRAME.
GENEVIEVE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE UNDERGOING INNER-CORE OSCILLATIONS BY
THAT TIME THAT COULD ALSO CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST, GENEVIEVE WILL LIKELY BE CROSSING THE 26 C SST
ISOTHERM LEADING TO A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE; ONLY THE
HCCA AID IS HIGHER. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY MODELS
INDICATE GENEVIEVE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE 36-60 H
PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 10.8N 104.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 11.8N 106.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 12.9N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 14.2N 110.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 15.5N 112.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 16.6N 113.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 17.6N 115.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 19.0N 118.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 20.5N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
FORECASTER PAPIN
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