171
WTPZ41 KNHC 252035
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
1100 AM HST SAT JUL 25 2026
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FAUSTO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE RAGGED, 25 N MI WIDE EYE OF THE HURRICANE
IS SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS INTERMITTENTLY
BEEN DISRUPTED BY SOME INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. THE LATEST D-MINT,
D-PRINT, AND AIDT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE ALL HOVERING AROUND 85
KT, WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY THERE FOR
THIS ADVISORY. A NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION IS
CURRENTLY UNDERWAY TO SAMPLE THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND FAUSTO.
FAUSTO IS MOVING INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER MARGINAL
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 36 H WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THE INTENSITY MODELS UNANIMOUSLY AGREE THAT
FAUSTO WILL WEAKEN ON ITS APPROACH TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR
THE SIMPLE (IVCN) AND CORRECTED (HCCA) CONSENSUS AIDS. A FASTER RATE
OF WEAKENING IS SHOWN FROM 60-120 H ONCE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE. AS FAUSTO MOVES TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, THE WIND FIELD IS PREDICTED TO SHRINK AND BECOME
ASYMMETRIC, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BECOMING DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.
A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC
OCEAN CONTINUES TO STEER THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE WEST AT 12 KT.
FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS WESTWARD HEADING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN
TOMORROW AND TOWARD HAWAII THEREAFTER. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC MAY WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE ENOUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO INDUCE A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE TRENDED NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AND IS
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT FAUSTO SHOULD PASS NEAR BUT TO THE
NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NHC FORECAST WAS NUDGED NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS PREDICTION BETWEEN 60-120 H, TOWARD THE LATEST CONSENSUS
AIDS (TVCN, HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN (GDMI).
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FAUSTO
WILL PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS, INCREASED SURF, AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS WHILE IT APPROACHES AND PASSES NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
BASED ON THE PREDICTED SHEARED NATURE OF THE STORM, THE RISK OF
SUSTAINED TROPICAL-FORCE-WINDS ON LAND SHOULD BE LOW AS LONG AS THE
FORECAST TRACK STAYS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN HAWAII
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE CHANCES OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINING OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ARE
INCREASING, INTERESTS ACROSS HAWAII SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FAUSTO.
2. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SWELLS GENERATED BY FAUSTO WILL REACH THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CYCLONE, PRODUCING
INCREASING SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. SURF IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS EAST-FACING SHORES OF THE EASTERN END OF THE
STATE ON SUNDAY, SPREADING WESTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND
CONTINUE BUILDING THROUGH TUESDAY AS FAUSTO APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 19.3N 137.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 19.6N 139.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 20.0N 141.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 20.4N 144.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 20.9N 147.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 21.5N 149.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 22.1N 152.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 23.0N 157.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 24.0N 162.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
FORECASTER REINHART
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page