956
WTPZ42 KNHC 252035
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
300 PM CST SAT JUL 25 2026
GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER AND A PLETHORA OF CURVED
BANDS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES
OF THE STORM. THE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AT
18 UTC WAS STILL T3.5/55 KT. SINCE THEN, THE OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO RISE. THE MOST RECENT ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE IS NOW AT 65 KT, WITH D-PRINT ESTIMATES
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS OSCILLATING BETWEEN 55-60 KT. GIVEN
THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN GENEVIEVE'S STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING RAISED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SCATTEROMETER
DATA AROUND 16 UTC ALSO INDICATED THAT GENEVIEVE'S WIND FIELD HAS
EXPANDED, ESPECIALLY ON ITS EASTERN SIDE.
THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO MARCH ON TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST,
ESTIMATED AT 300/13 KT. THERE IS NOT MUCH NEW TO REPORT WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK EVOLUTION, AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC SHOULD
MAINTAIN GENEVIEVE'S WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES
TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK,
THOUGH THE MODEL MEAN IS A LITTLE BIT SLOWER BEYOND 72 H. THUS,
THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT
IS A LITTLE SLOWER, ROUGHLY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
RELIABLE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA) AND GOOGLE
DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN (GDMI) AIDS.
GENEVIEVE APPEARS POISED TO UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI), IF IT IS NOT ALREADY UNDERWAY. THE LAST
MICROWAVE PASS OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO, SO
IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE SMALL INNER CORE HAS FULLY CLOSED OFF ON THE
WESTERN SIDE. REGARDLESS, ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN QUITE
FAVORABLE, AND SHIPS RI GUIDANCE (BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERSIONS)
SHOW BETWEEN A 74 TO 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 45 KT INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 36 H, WITH DTOPS RI GUIDANCE IN THE 90
PERCENT RANGE OVER THE SAME TIME SPAN. THUS, A 45 KT INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 H, WITH GENEVIEVE PREDICTED
TO PEAK AS A 115 KT CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 48 H. THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE HIGHER HCCA GUIDANCE AND LOWER GDMI AND
HAFS-A/B SOLUTIONS. AFTER 48 H, THE COMBINATION OF INNER-CORE
FLUCTUATIONS, A BRIEF INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, AND GRADUALLY
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) COULD LEAD TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING. THIS WEAKENING RATE WILL LIKELY INCREASE WHEN GENEVIEVE
CROSSES THE 26 C SST ISOTHERM BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 11.5N 105.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 12.4N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 13.5N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 14.7N 111.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 15.9N 112.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 16.9N 114.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 19.0N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 20.5N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
FORECASTER PAPIN
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