408
AXPZ20 KNHC 252127
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 137.6W AT 25/2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
SEAS OF 12 FT OR HIGHER FROM 15N TO 25N AND W OF 133W, WITH
MAXIMUM SEAS OF 32 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
PREVAILS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 135W AND 140W. SURF GENERATED
BY FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS EAST-FACING SHORES
OF THE EASTERN END OF HAWAII ON SUNDAY, SPREADING WESTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND CONTINUE BUILDING THROUGH TUESDAY
AS FAUSTO APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. FAUSTO
WILL CONTINUE MOVING W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH CENTER MOVING
W OF 140W BY SUN NIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE IS CENTERED NEAR 11.5N 105.7W AT
25/2100 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 102W AND 112W. SEAS OF 12 FT OR HIGHER
ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W, WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF
20 FT. SWELLS GENERATED BY GENEVIEVE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO STARTING
THIS WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY REACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT AND A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORIES AND PUBLIC ADVISORIES OF BOTH SYSTEMS AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 88W
NORTH OF 03N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE WAVE AXIS NORTH OF 10N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N94W, THEN RESUMES
SOUTHWEST OF T.S. GENEVIEVE AT 09N106W AND CONTINUES TO 07N113W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N113W TO 09N124W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE, NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AT
THIS TIME.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE WATERS
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OVER THE WATERS WEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. SEAS OVER
THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE OVER WATERS SOUTHEAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 16N
ALONG WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL. FRESH
TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE NORTHERN OUTER PERIPHERY
OF T.S. GENEVIEVE ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF 16N ALONG WITH SEAS 8 TO
11 FT IN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENEVIEVE WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR
12.4N 107.5W SUN MORNING, MOVE TO 13.5N 109.5W SUN AFTERNOON,
14.7N 111.3W MON MORNING, 15.9N 112.9W MON AFTERNOON, 16.9N
114.3W TUE MORNING, AND 17.8N 115.8W TUE AFTERNOON. GENEVIEVE
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 19.0N 119.0W
WED AFTERNOON. AS GENEVIEVE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NEXT WEEK, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. SWELLS FROM GENEVIEVE WILL IMPACT
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OUTSIDE THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT FOR ITS ENTRANCE THROUGH NEXT WEEK BUILDING
SEAS OVER THESE WATERS TO 12 FT AND GREATER.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
EXTENDING DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W, AND NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER MOST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF COSTA RICA.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN S
TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
AND NEARSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST.
THE SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL SUBSIDE AROUND MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE FAUSTO AND ON T.S. GENEVIEVE.
HURRICANE FAUSTO IS IMPACTING A PORTION OF THE WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
CIRCULATION OF FAUSTO EXTEND NORTHWARD TO 28N, WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WATERS BETWEEN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND FAUSTO, AND ALSO NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 120W.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE EQUATORIAL WATERS WEST
OF 120W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 126W FROM 03N TO 10N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE FAUSTO WILL MOVE TO 19.6N 139.2W SUN
MORNING, 20.0N 141.6W SUN AFTERNOON, 20.4N 144.3W MON MORNING,
20.9N 147.0W MON AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.5N
149.6W TUE MORNING, AND 22.1N 152.3W TUE AFTERNOON. FAUSTO WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 23.0N 157.0W WED
AFTERNOON. GENEVIEVE WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 12.4N
107.5W SUN MORNING, MOVE TO 13.5N 109.5W SUN AFTERNOON, 14.7N
111.3W MON MORNING, 15.9N 112.9W MON AFTERNOON, 16.9N 114.3W TUE
MORNING, AND 17.8N 115.8W TUE AFTERNOON. GENEVIEVE WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 19.0N 119.0W WED AFTERNOON.
THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL MENTIONED EARLIER WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL;
WATERS SOUTH OF ABOUT 03N AND BETWEEN 94W AND 128W GOING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
ERA
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