454
WTPZ41 KNHC 260236
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
500 PM HST SAT JUL 25 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FAUSTO'S OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DESPITE THE DRY
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT AND THE OCCASIONAL DRY AIR INTRUSION, THE
CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A SYMMETRIC
EYEWALL AND WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. THE RAGGED EYE, HOWEVER, HAS
RECENTLY BECOME OBSCURED WITH CLOUDS. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T5.0/90 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 80 TO AROUND 95 KT.
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 85 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/11 KT, AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS
AGAIN BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS (HCCA) BETWEEN 60-96 H.
FAUSTO IS MOVING INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER MARGINAL
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 36 H WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION, MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONE INTO TOMORROW BEFORE
GRADUALLY ERODING THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BY THE TIME FAUSTO MOVES INTO THE VICINITY OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, IT IS FORECAST TO BE A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM
WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER END OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
BASED ON THE PREDICTED SHEARED NATURE OF THE STORM, THE RISK OF
SUSTAINED TROPICAL-FORCE-WINDS ON LAND SHOULD BE LOW AS LONG AS THE
FORECAST TRACK STAYS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN HAWAII
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE VICINITY OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, INTERESTS ACROSS HAWAII SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAUSTO.
2. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SWELLS GENERATED BY FAUSTO WILL REACH THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CYCLONE, PRODUCING
INCREASING SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. SURF IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS EAST-FACING SHORES OF THE EASTERN END OF THE
STATE ON SUNDAY, SPREADING WESTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND
CONTINUE BUILDING THROUGH TUESDAY AS FAUSTO APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 19.5N 138.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 19.8N 140.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 20.2N 143.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 20.7N 145.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 21.3N 148.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 21.8N 150.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 22.4N 153.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 23.5N 157.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 31/0000Z 24.5N 162.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS/EVANS/PIERCE
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